North Carolina vs Wake Forest Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

min read
AP Photos
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Wake Forest (6-3) are -3.5 point favorites vs North Carolina (8-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 77 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN2

The North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2) visit Truist Field to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-4) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Winston-Salem.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for North Carolina vs. Wake Forest is total points.

Bet now on Wake Forest vs North Carolina & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

North Carolina vs. Wake Forest Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Carolina
Wake Forest

North Carolina vs Wake Forest Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Wake Forest will win this game with 57.1% confidence.

North Carolina vs Wake Forest Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Wake Forest will cover the spread with 70.3% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Wake Forest, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Drake Maye has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Drake Maye has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Josh Downs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Antoine Green has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Wake Forest Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Wake Forest players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • A.T. Perry has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Sam Hartman has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.69 Units / 10% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 18 games (+13.70 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • North Carolina is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 39.69% ROI
  • North Carolina is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • North Carolina is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Wake Forest Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wake Forest has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Wake Forest is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 5.02% ROI
  • Wake Forest is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Wake Forest is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Wake Forest

#22 North Carolina is 7-2 (.700) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — tied for 15th-best in FBS; Average: .437

#22 North Carolina is 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .626

North Carolina is 9-3 (.643) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

Wake Forest: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

#13 Wake Forest is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush — 12th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .600

#13 Wake Forest is 13-1 (.812) when rushing for more than 100 yards — 8th-best in FBS; Average: .537

#13 Wake Forest is 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times — tied for 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .378

#13 Wake Forest is 10-1 (.909) when intercepting at least 1 pass — tied for 9th-best in FBS; Average: .620

Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Wake Forest

Wake Forest’s WRs has 50 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fourth-most among Power 5 WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 40 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-most among ACC defenses.

Wake Forest has 35 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for second-most among Power 5 skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 16 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for third-fewest among ACC defenses.

Wake Forest’s WRs has 50 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-most among FBS WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 40 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-most among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s TEs has 14 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for third-most among P5 TEs. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 38 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-most among ACC defenses.

North Carolina’s QBs has 1,393 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fifth-most among FBS teams. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed 3,809 rushing yards since the 2021 season — second-most among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends

#15 North Carolina RBs have averaged 15.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (203 yards / 13 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#15 North Carolina WRs have averaged 20.7 yards per reception (186 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

#15 North Carolina TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among Power 5 Teams

#15 North Carolina QBs have averaged 38.7 rushing yards per game (774/20) in the 2nd half since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

#15 North Carolina TEs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Wake Forest Offensive Stats & Trends

Wake Forest QBs have 29 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Wake Forest WRs have 1,676 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– most among Power 5 Teams

Wake Forest Skill Players have 1,826 receiving yards on 3rd down since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Wake Forest’s WRs has 50 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fourth-most among Power 5 WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 40 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for second-most among ACC defenses.

Wake Forest has 35 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for second-most among Power 5 skill players. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 16 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2021 season — tied for third-fewest among ACC defenses.

North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends

#15 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 39 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

#15 North Carolina has forced 9 fumbles on 770 carries (85.6 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 41.4

#15 North Carolina has forced 9 fumbles on 770 carries (85.6 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.9

#15 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 39 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%.

#15 North Carolina has tackled opponents for a loss on just 26 of 267 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons Defensive Stats & Trends

Wake Forest’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 24% of PATs this season– highest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6%

Wake Forest’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 24% of PATs this season– highest in FBS; Average: 6%

Wake Forest has forced 33 fumbles since last season– 2nd most in FBS

Wake Forest has forced 33 fumbles since last season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Wake Forest has allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for most in FBS


Looking to place a bet on this game with a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Wake Forest vs North Carolina and all NCAAF games with BetMGM

College Football Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NFL betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.