Northwestern vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:45 PM
  • Minnesota (6-3) are -17.5 point favorites vs Northwestern (1-8)
  • Total (Over/Under): 41 points

The Northwestern Wildcats (1-10) visit Huntington Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-4) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Minneapolis.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Northwestern vs. Minnesota is total points.

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Northwestern vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Northwestern
Minnesota

Northwestern vs Minnesota Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 73.1% confidence.

Northwestern vs Minnesota Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Minnesota will cover the spread with 70.1% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Northwestern and Minnesota, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Northwestern Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Northwestern players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Evan Hull has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Ryan Hilinski has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Best Minnesota Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Minnesota players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tanner Morgan has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Tanner Morgan has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+7.10 Units / 177% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Northwestern has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Minnesota have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Minnesota has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Northwestern has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Northwestern is 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.95 Units / -55.61% ROI
  • Northwestern is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Northwestern is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Minnesota is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -17.36% ROI
  • Minnesota is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -25.25% ROI
  • Minnesota is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 17.17% ROI

Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Northwestern is winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes — tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .462

Northwestern is winless (0-10) when not forcing a fumble — tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .449

Northwestern is 1-9 (.100) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team — 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .497

Northwestern is winless (0-14) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .423

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern

Minnesota is 7-2 (.583) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .424

Minnesota is 8-3 (.571) when making 7 or more explosive plays — 13th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .439

Minnesota is 11-4 (.611) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2020 season– 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .459

Minnesota is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2020 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .596

Matchup Notes for Northwestern vs. Minnesota

Minnesota’s WRs has gained 1,020 yards on 62 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception this season — third-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota has 5 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fewest among Power 5 skill players. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota’s offense has 23 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — third-most among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 9 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fourth-most among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern’s WRs has gained 787 yards on 75 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season — tied for worst among Power 5 WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern has gained 1,487 yards on 149 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) this season — fourth-worst among Power 5 skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Northwestern has gained 3,615 yards on 357 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern’s WRs has gained 787 yards on 75 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season — tied for worst among Power 5 WRs. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — second-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern has gained 1,487 yards on 149 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) this season — fourth-worst among Power 5 skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.0 Yards Per Reception this season — tied for fourth-best among P5 defenses.

Northwestern has gained 3,615 yards on 357 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among FBS skill players. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — fifth-best among Big Ten defenses.

Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 22.9 receptions (206 Rec/9 TDs) since last season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Northwestern RBs have been targeted 10 times in short yardage situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota’s WRs has gained 1,020 yards on 62 receptions (16.5 YPR) this season — second-best among Power 5 WRs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 12.1 Yards Per Reception this season — third-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Minnesota Skill Players have averaged just 12.2 receptions per game (256/21) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.8

Minnesota WRs have averaged 18.8 yards per reception (75 yards/4 catches) in short yardage situations since last season– tied for 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.9

Minnesota RBs have averaged 37.4 carries per game (785 carries / 21 games) since last season– 2nd highest among FBS Teams; Average: 26.4

Minnesota Skill Players have been targeted 20.1 times per game (422/21) since last season– lowest among Power 5 Teams; Average: 30.6

Northwestern Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (9 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 54%

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) in close and late situations this season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (9 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 54%

Northwestern has tackled opponents for a loss on just 93 of 767 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) in close and late situations this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 58%

Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota has allowed 121.5 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 166.2

Minnesota has allowed first downs on 16% of pass attempts on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 28%

Minnesota has allowed 184.7 Passing Yards per game (3,878/21) since last season– best in FBS; Average: 242.0

Minnesota has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (331 completions/592 attempts) since last season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 61%

Minnesota has allowed a passer rating of just 107.3 (223.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 126.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.