TCU vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Texas (6-3) are -7 point favorites vs TCU (9-0)
  • Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
  • Watch the game on ABC

The TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (7-4) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Austin.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for TCU vs. Texas is total points.

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TCU vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
TCU
Texas

TCU vs Texas Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 61.3% confidence.

TCU vs Texas Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 50.2% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Texas, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Max Duggan has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Kendre Miller has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Quentin Johnston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Taye Barber has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Derius Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Max Duggan has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 10 games (+1.15 Units / 9% ROI)

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bijan Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan Whittington has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • TCU have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • TCU has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 20% ROI)

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • TCU is 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 44.16% ROI
  • TCU is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • TCU is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Texas is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -9.92% ROI
  • Texas is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • Texas is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

#8 TCU is 11-2 (.688) when scoring 22 or more points — 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .511

#8 TCU is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 11th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .560

#8 TCU is undefeated (7-0) when averaging more than 5 yards per rush — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .501

#8 TCU is 8-2 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .626

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

#20 Texas is 3-8 (.231) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — 14th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .364

Texas is 1-8 (.111) when losing at least one fumble since the 2020 season– tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .338

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Texas

Texas has 14 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for third-most among Power 5 skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed 4 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Texas’s RBs has 4 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for second-most among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for fourth-most among Big 12 defenses.

Texas’s RBs has 8 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — tied for third-most among FBS RBs. TCU’s defense has allowed 33 receiving touchdowns since the 2021 season — fifth-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.2% of 241 attempts this season — tied for fifth-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 10.1% of attempts this season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,332 yards on 272 receptions (15.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 2,305 yards on 158 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — tied for second-best among Power 5 skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.2% of 241 attempts this season — tied for fifth-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 10.1% of attempts this season — fifth-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,332 yards on 272 receptions (15.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU has gained 2,305 yards on 158 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — tied for second-best among Power 5 skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s WRs has gained 4,332 yards on 272 receptions (15.9 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 11.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2021 season — tied for third-best among FBS defenses.

TCU has gained 5,089 yards on 352 receptions (14.5 YPR) since the 2021 season — best among Power 5 skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2021 season — best among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

#18 Texas WRs have caught just 3 of 15 passes (20% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 55%

#18 Texas RBs have picked up first downs on 8 receptions in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

#18 Texas RBs have averaged 51.5 receiving yards per game (412/8) in the 1st half this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.1

#18 Texas WRs have caught just 3 of 15 passes (20% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 54%

#18 Texas WRs have averaged just 8.7 yards per reception (26 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 15.0

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

#4 TCU has forced 8 fumbles on 753 carries (94.1 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.9

#4 TCU has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 81 of 571 attempts (14%) since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10%

#4 TCU has forced 8 fumbles on 753 carries (94.1 Carries Per Fumble) since last season– worst in FBS; Average: 41.4

#4 TCU has allowed first downs on 34% of rush attempts in close and late situations since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 22%

#4 TCU has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 23 of 571 attempts (4%) since last season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

#18 Texas has allowed a passer rating of just 75.2 in the Red Zone (34.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 3rd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 156.6

#18 Texas has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (10 completions/34 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 52%

#18 Texas has allowed opponents to catch just 10 of 34 passes (29% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 53%

#18 Texas has allowed a passer rating of just 75.2 in the Red Zone (34.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th best in FBS; Average: 163.4

#18 Texas has allowed opponents to catch just 10 of 34 passes (29% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 54%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.