UL Lafayette vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – New Mexico Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 28, 2024, 11:29 AM

min read

TCU safety Bud Clark works out prior to an NCAA college football game between TCU and Texas, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. Texas won 29-26. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

TCU is a -12.5 point favorite vs. UL Lafayette
Louisiana vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-3) visit University Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) on Dec. 28 in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:15pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in the New Mexico Bowl, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Louisiana vs. TCU Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

Bet now on TCU vs UL Lafayette & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Louisiana vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Louisiana	+12.5 -110	57.5 -105	+340
TCU	-12.5 -110	57.5 -115	-450

Louisiana vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 75.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UL Lafayette and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Louisiana vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 74.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on TCU vs UL Lafayette and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Louisiana Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 away games (+6.90 Units / 31% ROI)
Louisiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Louisiana have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Louisiana has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Louisiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)

TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 88% ROI)
TCU has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 33% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisiana players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Louisiana Player Prop Bets Today

Ben Wooldridge has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ben Wooldridge has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Terrance Carter has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Lance LeGendre has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ben Wooldridge has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 71% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jack Bech has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UL Lafayette is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.45 Units / 3.16% ROI).

Louisiana is 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 11.28% ROI
Louisiana is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Louisiana is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.75 Units / -20.83% ROI).

TCU is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -15.11% ROI
TCU is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
TCU is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Louisiana is 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .582

Louisiana is 9-3 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .575

Louisiana is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553

Louisiana is 9-2 (.818) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .608

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana

TCU is 12-5 (.706) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 40th-best in FBS; Average: .620

TCU is 8-2 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575

TCU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .648

TCU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Matchup Notes for Louisiana vs. TCU

TCU’s offense has thrown for 3,811 passing yards in 12 games (317.6 YPG) this season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 189.4 passing yards per game this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s TEs has 102 receptions in 23 games (4.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

TCU have 317.8 receiving yards per game this season — 6th-best among FBS skill players. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 189.4 receiving yards per game this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s QBs has thrown for 3,387 passing yards in 13 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 192.7 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s offense has thrown for 3,387 passing yards in 13 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed just 192.7 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 383 attempts this season — T-14th-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Louisiana has gained 3,387 yards on 257 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU Skill Players have averaged 14.8 yards per reception (812 yards/55 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.8

TCU Skill Players have 1,847 receiving yards on 1st down this season– most among Big 12 Teams

TCU WRs have caught 46 of 60 passes (77% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 57%

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana has tackled opponents for a loss on just 49 of 445 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Louisiana allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana sacked opponents 8 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana has allowed first downs on 39% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%

Louisiana has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (24 completions/34 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 57 of 463 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 67 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 32nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

TCU has sacked opponents 10 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the Big 12

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 33 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 57 of 463 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.