UL Lafayette vs TCU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – New Mexico Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 12:07 PM

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TCU safety Bud Clark works out prior to an NCAA college football game between TCU and Texas, Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. Texas won 29-26. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

TCU is a -12.5 point favorite vs. UL Lafayette
Louisiana vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-3) visit University Stadium to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) on Dec. 28 in Albuquerque, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:15pm EST.

TCU is a betting favorite in the New Mexico Bowl, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Louisiana vs. TCU Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Louisiana vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Louisiana	+12.5 -110	57.5 -105	+340
TCU	-12.5 -110	57.5 -115	-450

Louisiana vs TCU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 75.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UL Lafayette and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Louisiana vs TCU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 74.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Louisiana Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Louisiana has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 away games (+6.90 Units / 31% ROI)
Louisiana has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 46% ROI)
Louisiana have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Louisiana has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
Louisiana has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 15% ROI)

TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 88% ROI)
TCU has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 33% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisiana players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Louisiana Player Prop Bets Today

Ben Wooldridge has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ben Wooldridge has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Terrance Carter has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Lance LeGendre has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ben Wooldridge has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 71% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jack Bech has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Louisiana Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UL Lafayette is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.45 Units / 3.16% ROI).

Louisiana is 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 11.28% ROI
Louisiana is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Louisiana is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.75 Units / -20.83% ROI).

TCU is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -15.11% ROI
TCU is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
TCU is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Louisiana: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Louisiana is 9-1 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .582

Louisiana is 9-3 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .575

Louisiana is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553

Louisiana is 9-2 (.818) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .608

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Louisiana

TCU is 12-5 (.706) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 40th-best in FBS; Average: .620

TCU is 8-2 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575

TCU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .648

TCU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Matchup Notes for Louisiana vs. TCU

TCU’s offense has thrown for 3,811 passing yards in 12 games (317.6 YPG) this season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 189.4 passing yards per game this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s TEs has 102 receptions in 23 games (4.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

TCU have 317.8 receiving yards per game this season — 6th-best among FBS skill players. Louisiana’s defense has allowed just 189.4 receiving yards per game this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s QBs has thrown for 3,387 passing yards in 13 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed just 192.7 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s offense has thrown for 3,387 passing yards in 13 games (260.5 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed just 192.7 passing yards per game this season — 32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 383 attempts this season — T-14th-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana RBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Louisiana has gained 3,387 yards on 257 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU Skill Players have averaged 14.8 yards per reception (812 yards/55 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.8

TCU Skill Players have 1,847 receiving yards on 1st down this season– most among Big 12 Teams

TCU WRs have caught 46 of 60 passes (77% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 57%

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana has tackled opponents for a loss on just 49 of 445 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) this season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Louisiana allowed 11 TD passes in close and late situations in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana sacked opponents 8 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Louisiana has allowed first downs on 39% of rush attempts on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%

Louisiana has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (24 completions/34 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 57 of 463 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 67 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 32nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

TCU has sacked opponents 10 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the Big 12

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 33 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 57 of 463 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.