- The Colts are -3.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Miami Dolphins (2-3-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (3-3-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis, IN.
The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Dolphins vs. Colts Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Dolphins vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Dolphins | +3.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +145 |
| Colts | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -175 |
Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 60.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Dolphins vs Colts Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 68.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 9 games (+9.55 Units / 83% ROI)
- Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Raheem Mostert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 68% ROI)
- Mo Alie-Cox has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 93% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+2.30 Units / 9% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 1-4 (-3.5 Units / -60.87% ROI).
- Dolphins are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -27.46% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Dolphins are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 5-1 (+3.9 Units / 59.54% ROI).
- Colts are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Colts are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Colts are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins are winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.
The Dolphins were 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Colts were 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.
The Colts were 1-5 (.167) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The Colts are 9-1 (.900) vs bottom 10 offenses since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.
The Colts are 1-3 (.250) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins have averaged -1.54 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.35.
The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 19 plays (32%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.
The Dolphins have averaged -0.53 epa per play against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 1 of 36 plays (3%) on plays when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts have averaged 1.13 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Colts have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense have allowed -1.30 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted WRs 20% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/10 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
The Dolphins defense has allowed first downs on just 26% of plays on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 33% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 82% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 20% of pass attempts with a base rush in Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 25% of plays with a base rush in Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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