Dolphins vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

min read

(AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:26 PM

The Colts are -3.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Miami Dolphins (2-3-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (3-3-0) on Oct. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis, IN.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Dolphins vs. Colts Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Colts vs Dolphins & all NFL games with BetMGM

Dolphins vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Dolphins	+3.5 -115	43.5 -110	+145
Colts	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-175

Dolphins vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 60.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Dolphins vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Colts vs Dolphins and all NFL games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 68% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 9 games (+9.55 Units / 83% ROI)
Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Raheem Mostert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
Devon Achane has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 68% ROI)
Mo Alie-Cox has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 93% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.20 Units / 17% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+2.30 Units / 9% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 35% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins art 1-4 (-3.5 Units / -60.87% ROI).

Dolphins are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.95 Units / -27.46% ROI
Dolphins are 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
Dolphins are 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 5-1 (+3.9 Units / 59.54% ROI).

Colts are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Colts are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
Colts are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Dolphins are winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

The Dolphins were 4-4 (.500) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Dolphins were undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Colts were 7-2 (.778) when not throwing an interception last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .652.

The Colts were 1-5 (.167) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Colts are 9-1 (.900) vs bottom 10 offenses since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.

The Colts are 1-3 (.250) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have averaged -1.54 epa per play when their QB has scrambled this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.35.

The Dolphins have converted fourth downs on just 6 of 19 plays (32%) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 64%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.53 epa per play against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Dolphins have converted first downs on just 1 of 36 plays (3%) on plays when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts have averaged 1.13 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense have allowed -1.30 epa per play with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

Offenses facing the Dolphins targeted WRs 20% of the time (2 Pass Attempts/10 plays) in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed first downs on just 26% of plays on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 33% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 82% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 20% of pass attempts with a base rush in Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 25% of plays with a base rush in Week 6 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Colts vs Dolphins and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!

About the Author