- Why I’m betting Chelsea as a short home favorite.
- Is Crystal Palace undervalued at home against Fulham?
- Read on for full analysis and best bets.
The midweek continental slate has concluded, and soccer bettors have another 10-match EPL slate to choose from this weekend.
Notable fixtures include the North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham as well as Liverpool vs. West Ham United. Elsewhere, current leaders Manchester City welcome Nottingham Forest and Manchester United travels to Burnley.
For my two best bets this week, I’m looking at other fixtures.
Let’s dive into the picks. English Premier League odds are reflective at time of writing.
English Premier League Matchday 6 Betting Predictions
Crystal Palace Moneyline (-115) vs. Fulham
Crystal Palace received a 3-0 trouncing in the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park.
However, that likely came as a result of the fact manager Roy Hodgson’s side played down a man for all but 30 minutes.
In the subsequent meeting at Craven Cottage, Fulham – a side that finished -0.35 expected goals per 90 better at home- lost the non-penalty expected goals battle 1.55 to 0.88, per fotmob.com.
Now they have to switch to their weaker venue and take on a Palace side that’s posted outstanding home results.
Through two home matches this season, Hodgsin’s side has posted a +0.35 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Last season, Saturday’s hosts recorded a +0.59 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home against sides beneath them in the table, earning all three points in six of nine.
As a result, back Palace at -125 or better Saturday at home.
Chelsea Moneyline (-115) vs. Aston Villa
Chelsea’s running so unlucky through the early goings, explaining this cheap price.
Through five EPL fixtures, manager Mauricio Pochettino’s squad has posted a +0 goal differential compared to a +4.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Although Aston Villa also enters this match a positive regression candidate – +1 goal differential vs. a +2.6 expected goal differential – most of that can be attributed to their home performances.
At home, manager Unai Emery’s squad owns a +2.08 xGDiff per 90 minutes. Away from home, it’s a -0.54 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
The latter metric is indicative of their road performance last season. Across the 2022-23 EPL campaign, Villa posted a -0.42 xGDiff per 90 minutes away from Villa Park, including a -1.2 xGDiff at Stamford Bridge.
Add in Villa will play this match on short rest and I expect Chelsea’s positive regression will come to fruition. Back the Blues at -125 or better.
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