- Guardians / Padres TV Channel: PDTV | MLBN
The Cleveland Guardians (+130) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Monday, February 26, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria, AZ.
Last season, the Guardians were 76-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres were 81-81 ATS.
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +130 |
| Padres | -155 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s matchup with 52.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- David Fry has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 6 games at home (+4.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.45 Units / 74% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.90 Units / 76% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 68% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 155 games (+17.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Guardians went 80-82 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -2.95% ROI).
- 76-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -10.57% ROI
- 67-91 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.95 Units / -18.94% ROI
- 91-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +18 Units / 10.14% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Padres went 81-81 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -2.96% ROI).
- 82-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -11.1% ROI
- 66-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.75 Units / -16.5% ROI
- 86-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.45 Units / 8.19% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters had a miss rate of just 15% (23/152) against Ben Lively when he was behind in the count in the 2023 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Ben Lively had an ERA of 6.75 (42.2 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.27 — third Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (15/60) against Ben Lively on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of 31% (46/150) against Ben Lively in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.5 MPH against his fastballs since last season (266 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Opponents had a chase percentage of 36% (294/807) against Joe Musgrove in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.6 MPH on inside pitches since last season (261 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Joe Musgrove walked 10 of 209 left-handed batters (5%) in the 2023 season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 92nd Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 34-114 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres were just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are 48-7 (.873) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres were just 2-13 (-73.5% ROI) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters had an OBP of .343 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers won only 19% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since last season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,898 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% against the Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Padres vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Manny Machado (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, Out
- Gary Sanchez (San Diego Padres): Hand, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gabriel Arias (Cleveland Guardians): Wrist, Out
- Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
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