- Barcelona is -0.5 goal favorite vs. Real Madrid
- Barcelona could receive some reinforcements before kickoff.
- Both teams won UEFA Champions League midweek matches.
The first El Clasico of the 2023-24 soccer season has arrived, and I’m set to provide a Barcelona vs. Real Madrid prediction.
Madrid enters this match on 25 points, good for first in La Liga based on goal differential. However, they’ve overperformed their underlying numbers by 5.7 goals.
As for Barcelona, a win would take them above Madrid in the table. Manager Xavi’s side has 24 points on a +12 goal differential compared to a +12.6 expected goal differential.
Here’s how the La Liga odds shape up for Saturday’s fixture.
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Odds
- Barcelona to Win: +150
- Real Madrid to Win: +160
- Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Draw: +260
- The Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Barcelona vs. Real Madrid is Barcelona Draw, No Bet (-125).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
One caveat to this play – wait to bet until lineups come out.
Barcelona has myriad questions about their lineup, but all of Robert Lewandowski, Frankie De Jong and Raphinha could return to the lineup on Saturday.
If they do, I’m willing to back Barcelona at home against a weak Madrid road team.
This season, Los Blancos own a +0.31 road xGDiff per 90 minutes in La Liga. They also went on the road to Braga in the midweek and lost the expected goals battle 0.9 to 1.5, per fbref.com.
Barcelona is miles ahead of Braga in terms of quality and bossed Real Madrid last season.
In two head-to-head meetings, Barcelona won both games on expected goals by a 3.6-1.6 margin, despite winning only one game in reality.
They’ve also excelled at home this season, posting a +1.22 xGDiff per 90 minutes. The competition is relatively weak, but five wins in five is hard to ignore.
This play largely comes down to a superior Barcelona defense.
Saturday’s hosts sit fourth in non-penalty expected goals against, while Madrid rank seventh, again per fbref.com.
With a healthy complement of attackers, expect Barcelona to do no worse than a point against their rivals.
El Clasico Past Head-to-Head Meetings
- March 19, 2023: Barcelona 2, Real Madrid 1
- October 16, 2022: Real Madrid 3, Barcelona 1
- March 20, 2022: Barcelona 4, Real Madrid 0
- October 24, 2021: Real Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
- April 10, 2021: Real Madrid 2, Barcelona 1
- October 24, 2020: Real Madrid 3, Barcelona 1
- March 1, 2020: Real Madrid 2, Barcelona 0
- December 18, 2019: Barcelona 0, Real Madrid 0
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