- The Astros are -115 favorites vs the Padres
- Astros vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Astros / Padres TV Channel: SCHN | PDTV
The Houston Astros (-115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-105) on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Astros are 82-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 76-76 ATS.
Astros vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 14-6, 2.91 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 13-11, 3.60 ERA
Astros vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +155 | O 6.5 +100 | -115 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 6.5 -120 | -105 |
Astros vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 away games (+28.40 Units / 114% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 48 games (+16.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+9.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Shay Whitcomb has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 42 games (+35.50 Units / 85% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 34 games (+17.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 45 games (+16.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+14.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 134 games (+19.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+17.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 75 games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 120 games (+6.47 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 77-74 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 2.75% ROI).
- 82-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -4.05% ROI
- 61-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.88 Units / -19.93% ROI
- 86-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.4 Units / 10.98% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 76-76 against the Run Line (+3.37 Units / 1.8% ROI).
- 86-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 2.2% ROI
- 81-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.75 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 68-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.95 Units / -13.02% ROI
Padres vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (265/433) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 73% (25/34) against Framber Valdez in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (1,002/2,414) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .284 (202 Total Bases / 712 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .157 (37-for-235) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 62 of 565 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
25 of Dylan Cease’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (271/737) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are just 11-22 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 0-52 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Astros are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are 10-56 (.152) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Padres are 62-8 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Padres are 124-21 (.855) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Padres are 19-45 (.297) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .197.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (888/5,726 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,708/11,979 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 257 strikeouts in 1,522 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 743 strikeouts in 4,222 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Padres are batting .487 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros have allowed 3.77 runs per game (901/239) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (4233.2 IP) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (7,637 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .171 against Padres pitchers this month (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Padres vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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