- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Braves / Padres TV Channel: FOX
The Atlanta Braves (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Saturday, July 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Braves are 52-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-49 ATS.
Braves vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Reynaldo Lopez 7-2, 1.71 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 7-8, 4.21 ERA
Braves vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -200 | O 7 +100 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | -130 |
Braves vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Braves vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 away games (+20.30 Units / 127% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 79 games (+28.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 away games (+11.74 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+9.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 59% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 65 games (+3.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 43-50 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -5.99% ROI).
- 52-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -7.98% ROI
- 32-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.75 Units / -28.38% ROI
- 56-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.55 Units / 19.87% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-49 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.33% ROI).
- 49-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -6.79% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.1 Units / 3.88% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -12.66% ROI
Padres vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
| Reynaldo Lopez (ATL) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .062 (4-for-65) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .144 (19-for-132) against Reynaldo Lopez with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 99th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OPS of just .294 (84 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .733 — 100th Percentile.
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed an OBP of just .252 (464 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .300 — 97th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (581/988) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (181/487) against Dylan Cease this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .201 (133-for-663) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 59% of the time (1,582/2,669) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Braves are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Braves are 45-107 (.296) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Braves are 50-57 (.467) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres are just 1-109 (.009) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are just 4-170 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Padres are just 11-16 (.407) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Padres are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OBP of .378 (1,177 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Braves hitters are slugging .487 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Braves hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s since last season (733/9,711) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .500 (22 PA’s) against LHP this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Padres hitters have just 4 strikeouts in 43 PA’s (9%) against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .476 against LHP this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (2,174 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (2,174 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.8.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,281 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Braves vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
