- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Brewers vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Brewers / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | BSWI
The Milwaukee Brewers () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Brewers are 28-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 18-32 ATS.
Brewers vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 3-2, 4.23 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 1-3, 5.11 ERA
Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | O | ||
| Marlins | U |
Brewers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+23.00 Units / 460% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+18.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+15.35 Units / 61% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+11.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+10.30 Units / 12% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+17.00 Units / 170% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+14.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+11.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.19 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+6.10 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+3.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 25-23 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -1.97% ROI).
- 28-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.9 Units / 14.01% ROI
- 29-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 16.05% ROI
- 19-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -23.98% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 18-32 against the Run Line (-21.31 Units / -32.58% ROI).
- 16-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.15 Units / -31.15% ROI
- 30-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 15.13% ROI
- 20-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.85 Units / -23.3% ROI
Marlins vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Marlins vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser (MIL) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 40% (51/129) against Freddy Peralta this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 33% (116 SO in 350 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 59% (64 SO in 108 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (6/34) against Freddy Peralta over the last 14 days — lowest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .318 (100 Total Bases / 314 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .191 (60-for-314) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 16 innings — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (231/459) against Jesus Luzardo on sliders since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 28-53 (.346) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are just 2-81 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Brewers are 53-37 (.589) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Brewers are 51-31 (.622) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 112-30 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Marlins are just 23-85 (.213) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are just 61-16 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 33-61 (.351) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .990 (72 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Brewers are batting just .234 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .815 (384 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Brewers hitters are slugging .425 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .366 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers have allowed 3.98 runs per game (430/108) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.54.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 197 of 1,981 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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