- The Brewers are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Brewers vs Padres Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Padres TV Channel: FOX
The Milwaukee Brewers (-105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Saturday, June 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Brewers are 44-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 40-40 ATS.
Brewers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Carlos Rodriguez 0-2, 6.49 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 1-4, 5.74 ERA
Brewers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -120 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 9 +100 | -115 |
Brewers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+14.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.00 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+34.90 Units / 388% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+13.05 Units / 100% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 76 games (+10.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 76 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 72 games (+7.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 76 games (+6.19 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.80 Units / 84% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 48 games (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 38% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 39-37 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -1.57% ROI).
- 44-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 11.22% ROI
- 40-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 6.5% ROI
- 32-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -14.32% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 40-40 against the Run Line (+2.65 Units / 2.72% ROI).
- 40-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -7.83% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.97% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.15 Units / -5.82% ROI
Padres vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .371 (13-for-35) against Carlos Rodriguez this month (2 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .254 — third Percentile.
Carlos Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of .410 (39 PA’s) this month (2 games) — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: .317 — seventh Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .350 (63-for-180) against Randy Vasquez this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed an OPS of 1.357 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .660 — first Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .871 (27 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .367 — second Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has allowed a slugging percentage of .871 (27 Total Bases / 31 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .394 — first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 30-59 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 44-104 (.297) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Brewers are 21-11 (.656) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 17-11 (.607) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 8-21 (.276) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Padres are just 1-102 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 10-153 (.061) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 20-36 (.357) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers hitters have 25 extra-base hits out of 92 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have a groundball batting average of .290 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .277 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .382 (376 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Padres hitters have just 174 strikeouts in 971 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .268 (1,534 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.74 (1065.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Brewers pitchers have 301 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have walked 18 of 113 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 60 batters (20%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have walked 26 of 173 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (20 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
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