MLB Cy Young Odds 2025: AL & NL Favorites, Predictions

Starting pitchers may not carry the same weight in today’s game as they once did, but there’s still something special about watching the best take the mound every few days.

In 2024, that honor belonged to Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers and Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, both of whom claimed their first career Cy Young awards.

Here’s a look at the latest MLB betting odds and predictions for the 2025 Cy Young market:

AL Cy Young Odds 2025: Favorites

Following the opening week of the 2025 MLB season, Boston Red Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet has become the new AL Cy Young favorite. His +300 odds give him an implied probability of 25%.

Crochet, who was +350 entering the year, became the favorite following a gem against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday. He pitched a career-best eight innings in a 3-0 win, striking out eight batters and allowing four hits. It marked his first start since agreeing to a six-year, $170 million contract extension.

Crochet passed Skubal as the AL Cy Young favorite, indicating this will be more of a race compared to last year. Skubal began 2024 at BetMGM’s biggest liability in the AL Cy Young market, and then proceeded to be the front-runner for much of the season. Skubal finished with an 18-4 record last summer, posting a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts over 192 innings.

With so much volatility early in the year, it’s worth monitoring this market for potential value. I have circled Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot as someone to watch. After posting a 3.60 ERA in 26 starts last season, he could be the latest breakout arm in Tampa Bay’s ever-reliable pitching pipeline.

Can the Rays keep working their magic?

Prediction: Ryan Pepiot (+4000)

NL Cy Young Odds 2025: Favorites

Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes begins as the betting favorite (+175) to win the NL Cy Young after a remarkable rookie season. He finished third in voting last year and already has some of the best stuff in baseball. This is his award to lose, and the latest Cy Young odds reflect that.

However, this market didn’t go according to plan in 2024. Spencer Strider started as a +425 favorite to win the NL Cy Young award, but a different Atlanta pitcher claimed the honor.

Sale won his first Cy Young award in his age-35 season. He went 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA in 29 starts. He struck out 225 batters in 177 2/3 innings of work. Sale was a 30/1 long shot to win the award entering the 2024 MLB season.

Can history repeat itself with another Braves’ long-shot pitcher winning this award? If so, right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach is an intriguing contender at his current price tag after entering the year with a 40/1 value.

Schwellenbach went 8-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts during his rookie campaign, striking out 127 batters in 123 2/3 innings. He can keep opposing hitters guessing with a six-pitch arsenal, including five pitches that had positive run value last year.

Watch out for a second-year leap from Schwellenbach; it’s in the Braves’ DNA, after all.

Prediction: Spencer Schwellenbach (+750)

2024 AL Cy Young Voting

2024 NL Cy Young Voting

List of AL & NL Cy Young Winners

*There was only one award for both leagues from 1956-66.

Players With Most Cy Young Awards

Roger Clemens has won the most Cy Young Awards (seven):

Roger Clemens: 7
Randy Johnson: 5
Greg Maddux: 4
Steve Carlton: 4

Teams With Most Cy Young Awards

The Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers have the most Cy Young Awards (12):

Dodgers: 12
Braves: 8
Mets: 7
Phillies: 7
Red Sox: 7

Has a Rookie Ever Won the Cy Young Award?

Fernando Valenzuela is the only rookie to win the Cy Young.

As a 21-year-old for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981, Valenzuela won the NL Cy Young. He was led the MLB in strikeouts and won NL Rookie of the Year in leading the Dodgers to the World Series.