- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | DBTV | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Friday, August 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 72-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 59-67 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 8-6, 4.35 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 11-5, 4.83 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 +100 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -120 | -130 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+31.00 Units / 238% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+16.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+13.65 Units / 81% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+13.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+11.70 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 50 games (+31.40 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+14.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 72 games (+22.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 71 games (+21.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 83 games (+22.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+13.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 126 games (+8.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 126 games (+8.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 65-63 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -2.32% ROI).
- 72-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 7.34% ROI
- 70-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.2 Units / 7.9% ROI
- 53-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.85 Units / -17.02% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 59-67 against the Run Line (-17.1 Units / -10.12% ROI).
- 67-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 1.24% ROI
- 66-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 5% ROI
- 54-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -18 Units / -13.01% ROI
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has a first-pitch strike rate of 82% (40/49) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .056 (1-for-18) against Ryne Nelson when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strike rate of 74% (142/191) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .056 (1-for-18) against Ryne Nelson when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .207 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (78/449) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (214/359) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (33/206) against Brayan Bello with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .440 (102-for-232) against Brayan Bello when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: .339 — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Diamondbacks are 17-13 (.567) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Diamondbacks are 14-179 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Diamondbacks are 18-13 (.581) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Diamondbacks are 54-11 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Red Sox are 23-15 (.605) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Red Sox are just 54-180 (.231) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Red Sox are 44-35 (.557) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Red Sox are just 13-47 (.217) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .280 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
26% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .341 (1,572 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in 64% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 412 strikeouts in 1,478 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .393 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .782 (3,420 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 345 of 4,807 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 177 of 2,570 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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