- The Mariners are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mariners vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Mariners / Marlins TV Channel: RTNW | BSFL | ESPN+
The Seattle Mariners (-160) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+135) on Friday, June 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mariners are 44-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 31-43 ATS.
Mariners vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 6-5, 3.31 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-8, 5.12 ERA
Mariners vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -110 | -160 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -110 | +135 |
Mariners vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 away games (+20.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+19.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+18.10 Units / 226% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 65 games (+2.20 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+10.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games at home (+2.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 37-40 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -6.57% ROI).
- 44-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 30-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.55 Units / -21.2% ROI
- 44-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.7 Units / 12.63% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 31-43 against the Run Line (-26.26 Units / -25.79% ROI).
- 25-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.9 Units / -26.36% ROI
- 39-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 2.7% ROI
- 34-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.4 Units / -10.31% ROI
Marlins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ty France (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ty France (SEA) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| George Kirby (SEA) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 21 of 639 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 11 of 412 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 50 of 1,649 batters (3%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 9 of 350 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 41% (20/49) of opposing batters this month (3 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (129/269) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (53/195) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 48% (129/269) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mariners are 99-16 (.861) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Mariners are 182-4 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 151-25 (.858) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Marlins are just 21-16 (.568) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Marlins are just 8-18 (.308) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Marlins are just 25-45 (.357) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Marlins are just 6-9 (.400) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Mariners hitters have pulled 50% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners hitters have 565 strikeouts in 2,019 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .201 (1,360 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .551 (853 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .404 (1,360 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners have allowed 2.85 runs per game (111/39) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Mariners pitchers have walked 35 of 682 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.34 (196.0 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 16% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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