- The Astros are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Marlins are 32-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 46-44 ATS.
Marlins vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.93 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | +180 |
| Astros | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | -225 |
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 65.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 games (+17.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 away games (+14.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+15.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 40-50 against the Run Line (-24.61 Units / -20.49% ROI).
- 32-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -19.75% ROI
- 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 2.57% ROI
- 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.95 Units / -10.07% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 46-44 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 2.75% ROI).
- 46-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.25 Units / -8.19% ROI
- 35-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.3 Units / -21.69% ROI
- 52-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.55 Units / 13.56% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (62/237) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 48% (154/321) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 24% of the time (230/940) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 32% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (104/321) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .173 (58-for-335) against Ronel Blanco this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (46/114) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has allowed a BABIP of .188 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .175 (28-for-160) against Ronel Blanco this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Marlins are just 9-9 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .754.
The Marlins are just 2-13 (.133) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Astros are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are 19-19 (.500) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Astros are 22-23 (.489) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .202 (1,670 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .275 (1,064 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have just 808 strikeouts in 4,609 PA’s (17%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (2,201/15,734 PA’s) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,360/9,680 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.69 runs per game (279/49) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.9 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.4
Astros pitchers have walked 8 of 52 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros pitchers have walked 329 of 3,406 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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