- The Braves are -275 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Miami Marlins (+220) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Monday, April 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 12-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 9-13 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | O 7.5 +100 | +220 |
| Braves | -1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -120 | -275 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.60 Units / 123% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.50 Units / 94% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Spencer Strider | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -120 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 9-13 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -25.99% ROI).
- 12-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 10.91% ROI
- 7-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -34.58% ROI
- 14-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.15 Units / 25.15% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 9-13 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -15.79% ROI).
- 14-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 10.92% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 9.39% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -18% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 9 of 32 batters (28%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 49 of 373 batters (13%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (41/222) against Edward Cabrera since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 57% (195/344) this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (36 SO in 88 PAs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has struck out 44% (23/52) of left-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (260/626) against Spencer Strider since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (238 SO in 616 PAs) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 9-44 (.170) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Marlins are just 60-14 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Marlins are just 26-52 (.333) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Marlins are 6-87 (.065) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 22-17 (.564) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 45-6 (.882) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Braves are 4-3 (.571) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,480 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (3,176 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have 401 strikeouts in 1,480 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 867 strikeouts in 3,176 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .303 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging 1.019 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Braves hitters have put just 23% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters are slugging .670 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 27 of 452 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 10% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 21 of 197 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Braves have allowed 2.17 runs per game (26/12) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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