- The Diamondbacks are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-175) on Friday, May 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Marlins are 17-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 23-27 ATS.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett 0-0, 10.25 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 5-3, 3.02 ERA
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -130 | -175 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 60.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+18.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 away games (+17.50 Units / 109% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+15.70 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+12.95 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+14.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+12.80 Units / 85% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 19-32 against the Run Line (-20.31 Units / -30.33% ROI).
- 17-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.05 Units / -28.64% ROI
- 30-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.15 Units / 12.77% ROI
- 21-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -21.09% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 23-27 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -10.37% ROI).
- 24-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -5.37% ROI
- 23-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -8.63% ROI
- 25-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.09% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gabriel Moreno (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett (MIA) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (379/790) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (250/525) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 6 of 262 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 5 of 150 batters (3%) with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (106/206) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 41% (27/65) against Zac Gallen this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strikeout rate of 35% (28 SO in 81 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (3-for-30) against Zac Gallen on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins are just 33-61 (.351) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Marlins are just 14-47 (.230) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Marlins are just 62-16 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 51-34 (.600) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are just 154-15 (.911) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 88-21 (.807) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Diamondbacks are just 136-24 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Diamondbacks are 16-10 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .201 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .207 (936 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
30% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .292 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.13 (270.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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