- The Mets are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+185) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-225) on Friday, August 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 45-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 58-63 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 2-6, 5.65 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 8-5, 3.47 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | +185 |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | -225 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 62.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 39 games (+43.90 Units / 113% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+22.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 35 games (+20.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+20.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+19.70 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 36 games (+30.50 Units / 85% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+17.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+16.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+13.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 29 games (+18.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 94 games (+14.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 away games (+13.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games (+12.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+9.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+9.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 57-64 against the Run Line (-25.31 Units / -16% ROI).
- 45-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.15 Units / -12.7% ROI
- 67-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.7 Units / 9.5% ROI
- 50-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.55 Units / -17.01% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 58-63 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -5.57% ROI).
- 62-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -2.63% ROI
- 61-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.06% ROI
- 54-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.1 Units / -9.34% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (79/230) against Roddery Munoz this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .528 (152 Total Bases / 288 ABs) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .404 — first Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: .313 — second Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has a strike rate of just 59% (100/170) this month (2 games) — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 25 of 207 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 41 of 412 right-handed batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 16 of 111 batters (14%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (635/1,451) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Marlins are just 15-16 (.484) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .758.
The Marlins are just 13-17 (.433) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Marlins are just 27-15 (.643) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
keys to the game – home
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 190 walks in 3,060 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .424 (2,319 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.96 (588.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 239 of 2,494 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 468 of 4,634 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 9 of 51 batters (18%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 39 of 244 batters (16%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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