- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on Tuesday, June 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 22-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 29-35 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-5, 5.37 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 1-2, 3.00 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -115 | +120 |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -105 | -145 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 55.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+14.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 away games (+11.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+10.25 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+12.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 13 games at home (+11.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+7.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 26-39 against the Run Line (-24.51 Units / -27.77% ROI).
- 22-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.75 Units / -26.67% ROI
- 35-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 5.04% ROI
- 29-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.1 Units / -12.72% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 29-35 against the Run Line (-9.4 Units / -11.23% ROI).
- 28-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -13.71% ROI
- 32-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 1.67% ROI
- 28-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -9.72% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (MIA) | 4.5 -185 | 4.5 +135 |
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .207 (17 Total Bases / 82 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 25 total IP; League Avg: .382 — 99th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of just .252 (369 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 86th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 32% (119 SO in 369 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 86th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .321 (368 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 13th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed an OPS of just .132 (23 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .502 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (82/396) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .445 (137 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 56% (287/511) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .765.
The Marlins are just 2-8 (.200) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Marlins are just 22-39 (.361) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Marlins are just 15-27 (.357) after a loss this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .940.
The Mets are just 17-10 (.630) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .887.
The Mets are just 13-9 (.591) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .845.
The Mets are 4-27 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .060.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.69 pitches per plate appearance this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .136 (125 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .199 (1,184 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have drawn 94 walks in 1,582 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have won just 22% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Mets are batting .271 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are just 22-6 (.786) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .940.
Mets hitters are slugging .680 against LHP this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 578 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 202 of 1,990 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 74% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Mets pitchers have walked 258 of 2,483 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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