- The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Thursday, June 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 23-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 30-36 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-2, 5.95 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 4-2, 3.24 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -105 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -115 | -200 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+16.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+14.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 32 games (+9.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 24 away games (+9.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.55 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.40 Units / 104% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+10.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+5.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 27-40 against the Run Line (-25.11 Units / -27.45% ROI).
- 23-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.4 Units / -25.45% ROI
- 36-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 4.75% ROI
- 30-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -12.47% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 30-36 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -10.56% ROI).
- 29-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.3 Units / -13.88% ROI
- 33-29 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 29-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.65 Units / -9.55% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roddery Munoz (MIA) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (12 Total Bases / 15 ABs) this month (1 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .416 — first Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed an OPS of 1.274 (19 PA’s) this month (1 games) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .730 — first Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed an OPS of 1.533 (15 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .756 — second Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed an OBP of .474 (19 PA’s) this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .314 — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (14/102) against Luis Severino this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .172 (23-for-134) against Luis Severino this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 91st Percentile.
The last hit on a Luis Severino slider was May 12nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 25 in ABs ending on his slider. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (58/102) against Luis Severino this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 7-8 (.467) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 4-8 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Marlins are just 7-17 (.292) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Marlins are just 7-16 (.304) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 18-10 (.643) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.
The Mets are just 23-6 (.793) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .940.
The Mets are just 14-9 (.609) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .845.
The Mets are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .784.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .599 (819 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .275 (819 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .200 (1,230 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have won just 30% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Mets are batting .271 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are just 18-10 (.643) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .263 (1,356 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 62 of 596 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 262 of 2,556 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 58% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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