- The Nationals are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-175) on Thursday, September 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Marlins are 54-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 81-64 ATS.
Marlins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Darren McCaughan 0-0, 7.40 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 7-9, 4.46 ERA
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -120 | +145 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +115 | U 9 +100 | -175 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 37 games (+31.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+15.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+17.00 Units / 142% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Mitchell Parker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.30 Units / 61% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 68 away games (+15.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 119 games (+14.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 25 away games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 137 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 137 games (+6.60 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 71 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+5.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 68-78 against the Run Line (-31.11 Units / -16.34% ROI).
- 54-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.7 Units / -12.27% ROI
- 79-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.25 Units / 7.59% ROI
- 61-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.85 Units / -15.55% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 81-64 against the Run Line (+5.93 Units / 3.09% ROI).
- 65-80 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 2.18% ROI
- 69-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.95% ROI
- 69-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.82 Units / -4.86% ROI
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Andrés Chaparro (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Darren McCaughan (CLE) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Darren McCaughan has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .302 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 20% (8/40) against Darren McCaughan on the first pitch of at-bats this month (2 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 33% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .467 (7-for-15) against Darren McCaughan when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Darren McCaughan has allowed an OPS of 1.289 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (2 games) — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .696 — ninth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (118/418) against Mitchell Parker since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (41/287) against Mitchell Parker on elevated fastballs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (7/28) against Mitchell Parker this month (2 games) — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — fifth Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has 36 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 7th most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 32-13 (.711) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins are just 21-18 (.538) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 51-78 (.395) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Marlins are just 53-91 (.368) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 56-229 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have 813 extra-base hits out of 2,611 total hits (just 31%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 919 walks in 12,921 PA’s (7%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .950 (2,123 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
Nationals hitters have just 1,056 strikeouts in 5,414 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 659 strikeouts in 3,467 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (697.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (438/75) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 503 of 5,639 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .344 (4,133 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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