- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Padres TV Channel: FDFL | PDTV
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Monday, May 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 21-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 28-23 ATS.
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 1-0, 1.80 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-4, 3.52 ERA
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -105 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -115 | -145 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+20.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+24.70 Units / 309% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Iglesias has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+7.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.35 Units / 88% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+5.65 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 27-24 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.6% ROI).
- 21-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -1.59% ROI
- 30-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.4 Units / 11.27% ROI
- 21-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -21.3% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 28-23 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 1.84% ROI).
- 29-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.8 Units / 2.56% ROI
- 21-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -16.83% ROI
- 28-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 7.61% ROI
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers (MIA) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has thrown his changeup 29% of the time (609/2,063) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 95th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers allowed a slugging percentage of just .221 (23 Total Bases / 104 ABs) on low non-fastballs in the 2024 season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 89th Percentile.
Ryan Weathers allowed a slugging percentage of .540 (27 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2024 season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .403 — 11th Percentile.
35 of Ryan Weathers’ 80 strikeouts (44%) came on changeups in the 2024 season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 8% (25/304) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 29% (89 SO in 309 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 15 AB’s against Randy Vasquez on low fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .337 (91-for-270) against Randy Vasquez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins are just 10-57 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 61-47 (.565) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 146-23 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Padres are 112-90 (.554) after a win since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins hitters have 266 extra-base hits out of 884 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.25 (1009.1 IP) at home since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since the 2023 season (9,085 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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