- The Padres are -185 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Marlins / Padres TV Channel: BSFL | PDTV | MLBN
The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-185) on Monday, May 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 19-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-27 ATS.
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-6, 6.07 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 4-4, 4.31 ERA
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | O 7.5 +100 | +150 |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | U 7.5 -120 | -185 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 58.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+16.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+14.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 away games (+14.50 Units / 76% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 40 games (+20.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 49 games (+16.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 24 games at home (+14.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+14.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.30 Units / 66% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 22-32 against the Run Line (-17.31 Units / -24.29% ROI).
- 19-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.35 Units / -24.3% ROI
- 30-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 6.67% ROI
- 24-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -14.85% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-27 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 5.05% ROI).
- 28-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -7.96% ROI
- 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.06% ROI
- 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -9.96% ROI
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Donovan Solano (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Michael King (SD) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .469 (81 PA’s) this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .301 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .524 (42 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .328 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OPS of 1.000 (144 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .675 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .447 (47 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (31 Total Bases / 31 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — first Percentile.
Michael King has walked 13 of 133 right-handed batters (10%) this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — ninth Percentile.
Michael King has walked 28 of 263 batters (11%) this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Michael King has walked 28 of 263 batters (11%) this season — tied for 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 51-34 (.600) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Marlins are just 43-54 (.443) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Marlins are just 37-69 (.349) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Marlins are just 114-30 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Padres are just 8-144 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 1-92 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Padres are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 565 extra-base hits out of 1,844 total hits (just 31%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .407 (982 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .207 (982 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .278 (706 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Padres are batting .303 on the road this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,061 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Padres hitters have just 1,242 strikeouts in 6,012 PA’s (21%) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,222 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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