- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Marlins / Padres TV Channel: BSFL | PDTV
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Marlins are 19-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 29-28 ATS.
Marlins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 2-3, 4.20 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 2-5, 4.90 ERA
Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | O 7 -105 | +110 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -115 | -130 |
Marlins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+17.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 32 games (+15.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+14.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 away games (+13.50 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 41 games (+19.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+15.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+15.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+13.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 23-32 against the Run Line (-16.31 Units / -22.51% ROI).
- 19-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -25.56% ROI
- 30-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 4.81% ROI
- 25-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -12.92% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 29-28 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 3.56% ROI).
- 29-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -6.37% ROI
- 29-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 27-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -8.2% ROI
Padres vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Padres vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Gordon (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Padres vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (MIA) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Matt Waldron (SD) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has walked 30 of 351 batters (9%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .192 (62-for-323) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 97th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 35% (181 SO in 513 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 42 of Matt Waldron’s 239 off-speed pitches out of the zone (18%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (47/162) against Matt Waldron on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed an OBP of .528 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .293 — 0 Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of .582 (46 Total Bases / 79 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: .376 — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 51-34 (.600) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Marlins are 17-177 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 43-54 (.443) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Marlins are just 14-47 (.230) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are just 7-20 (.259) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Padres are just 1-92 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Padres are just 8-144 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are just 19-35 (.352) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .207 (1,005 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .409 (1,005 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .288 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Padres are batting .303 on the road this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,061 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Padres hitters have just 110 strikeouts in 596 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% this month (24 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (5,242 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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