- The Phillies are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+200) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Saturday, June 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Marlins are 29-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 45-37 ATS.
Marlins vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Roddery Munoz 1-3, 5.81 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 9-3, 3.42 ERA
Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | O 8.5 -115 | +200 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -120 | U 8.5 -105 | -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 68.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 away games (+14.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+14.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 36 away games (+12.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 67 games (+25.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 65 games (+23.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 43 of their last 64 games (+19.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 35 games at home (+16.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 games (+13.30 Units / 17% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 35-47 against the Run Line (-26.51 Units / -23.92% ROI).
- 29-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -18 Units / -20.62% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.28% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -7.32% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 45-37 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 7.78% ROI).
- 54-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 9.13% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -12.75% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 3.73% ROI
Phillies vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Phillies vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tyler (MIA) | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +130 |
| Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roddery Munoz has allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (78 Total Bases / 135 ABs) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .398 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .121 (4 GB hits out of 33 GBs) against Roddery Munoz this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 100th Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has allowed a BABIP of .207 this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .286 — 98th Percentile.
Roddery Munoz has walked 18 of 154 batters (12%) this season — tied for 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .193 (131-for-679) against Aaron Nola when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (304/852) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (99/287) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .235 (716 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 9-8 (.529) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .755.
The Marlins are just 9-18 (.333) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Marlins are just 25-18 (.581) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Marlins are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 48-6 (.889) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Phillies are 8-17 (.320) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Phillies are 21-7 (.750) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (990 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .318 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .195 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .334 (4,700 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .770 (1,082 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 10% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .121 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Phillies pitchers have walked 18 of 451 batters (4%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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