- The Twins are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+190) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-250) on Tuesday, September 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Marlins are 57-99 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 71-85 ATS.
Marlins vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers 3-6, 3.93 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 12-7, 3.85 ERA
Marlins vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -110 | +190 |
| Twins | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -110 | -250 |
Marlins vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 68.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 47 games (+40.50 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+12.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+10.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+9.60 Units / 137% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 away games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 away games (+15.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 29 away games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 90 games (+14.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 70 games at home (+10.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+1.25 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 73-83 against the Run Line (-32.3 Units / -15.95% ROI).
- 57-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.3 Units / -12.5% ROI
- 82-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.9 Units / 5.76% ROI
- 66-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.35 Units / -13.63% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 71-85 against the Run Line (-18.05 Units / -9.15% ROI).
- 81-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.9 Units / -6.28% ROI
- 79-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 2.8% ROI
- 68-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.35 Units / -11.29% ROI
Twins vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Ryan Weathers (MIA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has not walked a batter in his last 15.2 innings pitched — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 33.0.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 25% (229/907) against Ryan Weathers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 30% — fourth Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has not allowed a walk in any of his last three starts — Drew Rasmussen has the longest active streak at 5.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% (111/220) against Ryan Weathers this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 92nd Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .128 (34-for-266) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .419 (26 GB hits out of 62 GBs) against Bailey Ober with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (149/438) against Bailey Ober this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (24-for-132) against Bailey Ober when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Marlins are just 22-18 (.550) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Marlins are just 6-22 (.214) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Marlins are just 8-7 (.533) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Marlins are just 34-13 (.723) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Twins are just 26-37 (.413) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 206-5 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Twins are 138-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 1-64 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (1,922 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of .323 (13,442 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .324 (9,050 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Twins hitters are slugging just .324 against RHP this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .610 (561 PA’s) against RHP this month (20 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins have allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 411 of 5,812 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
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