- The Mets are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: SNY | BSFL | ESPN+
The New York Mets (+) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 49-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 42-54 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 6-3, 3.50 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-3, 8.17 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Mets | -1.5 +125 | O 8 +100 | + |
Marlins | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -120 | + |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 86 games (+20.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+17.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+15.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+13.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games at home (+2.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-49 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -4.75% ROI).
- 49-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.35% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 5.61% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.25 Units / -14.07% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 42-54 against the Run Line (-27.86 Units / -21.83% ROI).
- 33-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.4 Units / -21.92% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -11.63% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (200/456) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (59/328) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (168/851) against Luis Severino this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Luis Severino has struck out just 8% (3/37) of left-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 114 of 856 batters (13%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has averaged 92.7 MPH on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 85.4 — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 81 of 565 batters (14%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 43 of 351 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 6-36 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 34-11 (.756) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 38-6 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 14-167 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 2-14 (.125) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Marlins are just 8-13 (.381) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Marlins are just 9-12 (.429) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .754.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (1,036 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Mets hitters are slugging .454 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,701 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .204 (1,799 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .589 (1,127 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,146 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 220 of 2,267 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 362 of 3,651 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.69 runs per game (279/49) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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