- The Mets are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: SNY | BSFL | ESPN+
The New York Mets (+) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 49-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 42-54 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 6-3, 3.50 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 1-3, 8.17 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | O 8 +100 | + |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | U 8 -120 | + |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 86 games (+20.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+17.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+15.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 91 games (+13.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games at home (+2.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-49 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -4.75% ROI).
- 49-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.35% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 5.61% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.25 Units / -14.07% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 42-54 against the Run Line (-27.86 Units / -21.83% ROI).
- 33-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.4 Units / -21.92% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.3 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -11.63% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (200/456) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (59/328) against Luis Severino this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (168/851) against Luis Severino this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Luis Severino has struck out just 8% (3/37) of left-handed batters he faced this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 114 of 856 batters (13%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has averaged 92.7 MPH on changeups since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 85.4 — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 81 of 565 batters (14%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 43 of 351 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 6-36 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 34-11 (.756) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 38-6 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 14-167 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 2-14 (.125) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Marlins are just 8-13 (.381) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Marlins are just 9-12 (.429) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .754.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .267 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (1,036 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Mets hitters are slugging .454 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,701 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .204 (1,799 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .589 (1,127 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,146 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 220 of 2,267 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 362 of 3,651 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.69 runs per game (279/49) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
