- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: WPIX | BSFL
The New York Mets (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Sunday, May 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 20-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 17-30 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 2-1, 3.10 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sixto Sanchez 0-1, 5.87 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | O 8 -120 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | U 8 +100 | +120 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 60.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 44 games (+14.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+9.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+15.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 away games (+9.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+6.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 away games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.80 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-25 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -10.07% ROI).
- 20-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -11.48% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -2.52% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -6.28% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 17-30 against the Run Line (-19.46 Units / -31.79% ROI).
- 15-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.4 Units / -31.51% ROI
- 28-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.4 Units / 14.37% ROI
- 19-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -22.54% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Sixto Sanchez (MIA) | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -160 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 12 of 72 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 12 of 72 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (38/116) against Sean Manaea this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 17 of 148 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 8% (5/62) against Sixto Sanchez with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (25/196) against Sixto Sanchez this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Sixto Sanchez has a strikeout rate of just 11% (8 SO in 70 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Sixto Sanchez has a strikeout rate of just 12% (13 SO in 106 PAs) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 62-28 (.689) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Mets are just 4-89 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 8-140 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Mets are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are 16-173 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 41-54 (.432) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Marlins are just 14-47 (.230) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Marlins are just 112-29 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .323 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
The Mets are batting just .207 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .797 (324 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.050.
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .204 (863 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.68 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 203 of 1,757 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 18 of 111 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Mets pitchers have walked 53 of 408 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 193 of 1,820 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Marlins pitchers this season is 404.1 feet — highest in MLB; League Avg: 395.7
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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