Juan Soto has joined the New York Mets.
Soto signed the largest deal in professional sports history on Sunday, agreeing to a 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets. Soto will play for his fourth team in as many years after debuting in 2018, but the 26-year-old star outfielder is here to stay.
And the Mets are getting a hall-of-fame player entering his prime.
After landing the biggest free agent this offseason, the Mets expect to be genuine contenders following last year’s trip to the NLCS. Their futures odds have improved, while their crosstown foe and Soto’s former team (New York Yankees) have dropped slightly in the betting market.
Here is a look at how the Mets’ MLB odds adjusted following the Soto signing:
Mets World Series Odds
- Opening value: +1400
- Current price: +700
The Mets’ World Series odds have been cut in half since the market opened at the start of the offseason. They have gone from +1400 to +700, giving them an implied probability of 12.5% to win their first championship since 1986.
New York moved to +1200 just before signing Soto, as this team was a top contender in the Juan Soto next team odds market.
“A move from +1200 to +700 is massive for one player, but it also indicates that Steve Cohen and the Mets look to be all in and will continue adding pieces to their team,” said Hal Egeland, who is BetMGM’s Trading Strategy Manager.
Since signing Soto, 66% of the money has been on the Mets to win the World Series.
The Yankees, who were the favorite to re-sign Soto after he spent the 2024 season with them, dropped from +800 to +900 to win the World Series.
For comparison, the Mets were a +5000 long shot to win the World Series last preseason.
Mets National League Odds
- Opening value: +800
- Current price: +400
After losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, the Mets started with +800 odds to win the pennant in 2025. They are now +400 to win the NL for the first time since 2015, translating to an implied probability of 20%.
New York hasn’t been better than +450 to win the pennant in the preseason since having a +250 value in 2008.
Mets NL East Odds
- Opening value: +275
- Current price: +150
The Mets are the betting favorites to win the NL East with a +150 price tag, meaning they have an implied probability of 40% to win the division. New York hasn’t won the division since 2015.
New York entered the 2024 campaign with a +1200 price to win the division, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. The Mets haven’t been preseason favorites to win the NL East since 2016.
The Mets have claimed two division crowns since 1989.
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