- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Mets / Padres TV Channel: SNY | PDTV
The New York Mets (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Friday, August 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Mets are 67-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 66-63 ATS.
Mets vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 5-3, 4.20 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-4, 5.03 ERA
Mets vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Mets vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 away games (+40.00 Units / 235% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+20.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+13.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Peralta has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games (+22.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+13.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 80 games (+8.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 68 of their last 119 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+6.30 Units / 7% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+14.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games (+14.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 97 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+4.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 61-67 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -5.85% ROI).
- 67-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.16% ROI
- 64-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 58-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -8.31% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 66-63 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 3.31% ROI).
- 72-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 1.27% ROI
- 70-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.85 Units / 5.58% ROI
- 57-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.75 Units / -14.49% ROI
Padres vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Blackburn (NYM) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
| Joe Musgrove (SD) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (61/186) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (122/404) against Paul Blackburn on pitches in the strike zone since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (39/118) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (23/116) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% (107/315) against Joe Musgrove on fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .363 (248 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .306 — third Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 27 of 531 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 90th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has not allowed a home run in any of the last 22.1 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 76.0.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mets are 6-51 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are 124-29 (.810) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Mets are just 45-12 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Mets are 85-35 (.708) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Padres are 67-54 (.554) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Padres are 23-16 (.590) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .465.
The Padres are just 16-17 (.485) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Padres are 115-20 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .770 (1,295 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (8,649 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Mets are batting .266 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .345 (1,327 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 240 strikeouts in 1,371 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .265 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .331 (3,070 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 490 of 4,883 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 61 of 493 batters (12%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 244 of 2,557 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (7,069 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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