MLB Home Run Props Today: Best Bets, Odds, & Predictions

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New York Yankees' Aaron Judge celebrates a home run in the third inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022, in New York.
(AP Photo/Corey Sipkin)
Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Oct 14, 2024, 4:01 PM
  • Get expert betting picks and home run predictions for today's top MLB games.
  • Aaron Judge is +333 to hit a home run against the Guardians.

Here are the best MLB home run player props based on MLB odds for today’s schedule:

MLB Home Run Props Today: Monday, Oct. 14

Aaron Judge: +333 to Hit a Home Run

ยป Bet Aaron Judge to hit a home run today

Guardians vs. Yankees โ€“ 7:38 p.m. ET

Will Aaron Judge hit a home run today?

Itโ€™s worth reminding readers that MLB postseason odds will be more efficient than the regular-season lines, and that is certainly the case when assessing the home run market.

But there might finally be value on the leagueโ€™s home run king.

After leading the league with 58 home runs in the regular season, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has yet to club one over the fence this postseason.

He went 2-for-13 with two runs in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals.

As a result, Judgeโ€™s home run odds have dipped ahead of Game 1 of the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians. Thatโ€™s why he appears in this column for the first time all year.

Ballpark Palโ€™s model makes the Judge the most likely player to hit a home run on Monday, listing a fair price of +269 to go deep. I will bet on his home run odds at +330 or better.

This is the game where Judge gets things going in the postseason.

2024 MLB Home Run Bet Tracker

For transparency, I have compiled a running list of all home run predictions in this daily column since the start of the 2024 MLB season. Multiple third-party apps have tracked all such predictions.

For simplicity, each home run prop has been tracked as one unit.

  • Home Run Prop, Year-to-date (YTD) units: +48.85
DATEWAGERODDSSTAKEWIN/LOSSRESULTYTD
3/28Oneil Cruz HR vs. MIA8501.00WIN8.5047.85
3.28Mookie Betts HR vs. STL4351.00WIN4.35
3/29Yordan Alvarez vs. NYY3751.00LOSS-1.00
4/1Bobby Witt Jr. vs. BAL8001.00WIN8.00
4/2Corbin Carroll vs. NYY9501.00VOID0.00
4/3Jose Altuve vs. TOR6001.00WIN6.00
4/4Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. STL5001.00LOSS-1.00
4/5Francisco Alvarez vs. CIN4501.00LOSS-1.00
4/11Rafael Devers vs. BAL5501.00VOID0.00
4/17Will Smith vs. WAS6501.00LOSS-1.00
4/19Shohei Ohtani vs. NYM3751.00LOSS-1.00
4/22Ronald Acuna Jr. vs. MIA4301.00LOSS-1.00
4/23Jose Ramirez vs. BOS6751.00WIN6.75
4/24Pete Alonso vs. SF6751.00LOSS-1.00
4/26Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. LAD5751.00LOSS-1.00
5/3Pete Alonso vs. TBR4501.00LOSS-1.00
5/7Will Smith vs. MIA6301.00LOSS-1.00
5/10Marcus Semien vs. COL5501.00LOSS-1.00
5/10Salvador Perez vs. LAA4301.00LOSS-1.00
5/13Daulton Varsho vs. BAL9001.00WIN9.00
5/14Anthony Santander vs. TOR5501.00VOID0.00
5/17Spencer Steer vs. LAD5601.00LOSS-1.00
5/20Mookie Betts vs. ARI5001.00LOSS-1.00
5/21Mike Tauchman vs. ATL7001.00LOSS-1.00
5/24Bobby Witt Jr. vs. TBR4251.00WIN4.25
5/28Gunnar Henderson vs. BOS4251.00LOSS-1.00
5/29Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. MIA4751.00LOSS-1.00
5/31Mookie Betts vs. COL5501.00LOSS-1.00
6/4Jose Ramirez vs. KC5501.00LOSS-1.00
6/5Jose Ramirez vs. KC4801.00VOID0.00
6/6Royce Lewis vs. NYY4251.00VOID0.00
6/7Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. ARI4501.00WIN4.50
6/10Willy Adames vs. TOR5251.00WIN5.25
6/11Pete Alonso vs. MIA4501.00LOSS-1.00
6/12Royce Lewis vs. COL4501.00WIN4.50
6/14Bobby Witt Jr. vs. LAD5001.00LOSS-1.00
6/18Michael Busch vs. SF6501.00LOSS-1.00
6/20Ezequiel Tovar vs. LAD6251.00VOID0.00
6/21Alec Bohm vs. ARI6001.00LOSS-1.00
6/25Adolis Garcia vs. MIL3501.00LOSS-1.00
6/26Willy Adames vs. TEX5251.00LOSS-1.00
6/28Juan Soto vs. TOR5251.00WIN5.25
7/2Yordan Alvarez vs. TOR4251.00WIN4.25
7/3Alex Bregman vs. TOR6001.00LOSS-1.00
7/4Ryan McMahon vs. MIL4501.00LOSS-1.00
7/8Ryan McMahon vs. CIN5001.00LOSS-1.00
7/9Cody Bellinger vs. BAL5251.00LOSS-1.00
7/10Gunnar Henderson vs. CHC5001.00LOSS-1.00
7/12Marcus Semien vs. HOU7001.00LOSS-1.00
7/19Heliot Ramos vs. COL4901.00LOSS-1.00
7/22Shohei Ohtani vs. SF4401.00LOSS-1.00
7/24Jose Ramirez vs. DET6251.00LOSS-1.00
7/26Taylor Ward vs. OAK5751.00WIN5.75
7/29Elly De La Cruz vs. CHC4801.00VOID0.00
7/30Royce Lewis vs. NYM4501.00LOSS-1.00
7/31Austin Riley vs. MIL4251.00LOSS-1.00
8/2Marco Luciano vs. CIN4751.00LOSS-1.00
8/5Jose Ramirez vs. ARI5751.00LOSS-1.00
8/6Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. LAA5001.00VOID0.00
8/7J.D. Martinez vs. COL4501.00VOID0.00
8/8Colton Cowton vs. TOR5501.00WIN5.50
8/9Elly De La Cruz vs. MIL5601.00LOSS-1.00
8/21Bobby Witt Jr. vs. LAA4251.00LOSS-1.00
8/23Will Smith vs. TBR4751.00LOSS-1.00
8/26Matt Olson vs. MIN4001.00WIN4.00
8/27Josh Naylor vs. KCR4251.00LOSS-1.00
8/28Teoscar Hernandez vs. BAL5501.00WIN5.50
8/29Salvador Perez vs. HOU5001.00LOSS-1.00
8/30Oneil Cruz HR vs. CLE3401.00LOSS-1.00
9/3Lawrence Butler vs. SEA5251.00WIN5.25
9/4Taylor Ward vs. LAD5001.00WIN5.00
9/5Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. DET4501.00LOSS-1.00
9/6Anthony Santander vs. TBR4751.00LOSS-1.00
9/9Mookie Betts vs. CHC4751.00WIN4.75
9/10MJ Melendez vs. NYY5001.00LOSS-1.00
9/11Bobby Wtt Jr. vs. NYY4501.00LOSS-1.00
9/12Wyatt Langford vs. SEA5501.00LOSS-1.00
9/13Austin Wells vs. BOS5501.00LOSS-1.00
9/16Jose Ramirez vs. MIN6501.00LOSS-1.00
9/17Taylor Ward vs. CHW4751.00LOSS-1.00
9/18Julio Rodriguez vs. NYY5251.00LOSS-1.00
9/20Joc Pederson vs. MIL4501.00LOSS-1.00
9/24Manny Machado vs. LAD4501.00LOSS-1.00
9/25Anthony Santander vs. NYY4051.00LOSS-1.00
9/26Juan Soto vs. BAL4501.00LOSS-1.00
9/27William Contreras vs. NYM5501.00LOSS-1.00
10/1Michael Massey vs. BAL8751.00LOSS-1.00
10/2Jurickson Profar vs. ATL8001.00LOSS-1.00
10/5Kyle Higashioka vs. LAD9001.00LOSS-1.00
10/8Teoscar Hernandez vs. SD5501.00WIN5.50
10/9Bobby Witt Jr. vs. NYY5001.00LOSS-1.00
10/11Mookie Betts vs. SD5001.00LOSS-1.00
10/14Aaron Judge vs. CLE3331.00LOSS-1.00

2024 MLB Home Run Leaders

PlayerHome RunsABs/HR
Aaron Judge579.68
Shohei Ohtani5311.64
Anthony Santander4413.25
Juan Soto4113.80
Marcell Ozuna3915.08
Josรฉ Ramรญrez#3816.16
Brent Rooker3813.97
Kyle Schwarber3814.82

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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.