- Get expert betting picks and home run predictions for today's MLB games.
- Find the players with the best odds of hitting a home run today.
- Today’s home run prediction is Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe.
Here are today’s home run predictions based on the latest MLB odds:
Home Run Predictions Today: April 4
- Tampa Bay Rays 2B Brandon Lowe (+450) vs. Texas Rangers
Brandon Lowe: +450 to Hit a Home Run
Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe is my favorite home run prediction for Friday’s road matchup against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field.
Lowe is an excellent target in the home run market this year because the Rays are playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the New York Yankees’ spring training venue, instead of inside Tropicana Field. Lowe already has two homers in six games.
However, I also like his chances of going deep on the road on Friday. The left-handed hitter has a matchup against Texas righty Tyler Mahle, who got pulled in the second inning of his first start after dealing with shoulder soreness in the spring.
Due to all the windy weather in the national forecast for Friday, this is a tricky slate to navigate. Still, Ballpark Pal’s model projects Lowe as the second-most likely player to go deep behind New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge.
I like his chances at +400 or better.
Who Will Hit a Home Run Today?
| Player (Team) | Home Run Odds | Game (Time) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TBR) | +450 | Rays vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET) |
Home Run Bet Tracker
For transparency, I have compiled a running list of all home run predictions in this daily column since the start of the 2024 MLB season. Multiple third-party apps have tracked all such predictions.
For simplicity, each home run prop has been tracked as one unit.
- 2025 Home Run Props, Year-to-date (YTD) units: -4
- 2024 Home Run Props, Year-to-date (YTD) units: +47.85
MLB Home Run Props Today: April 4
Here is an updated list of players with the best home run odds today:
| Player | Home Run Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +220 | 31.25% |
| Corey Seager (TEX) | +260 | 27.78% |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | +320 | 23.81% |
| Joc Pederson (TEX) | +320 | 23.81% |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +333 | 23.09% |
| Adolis Garcia (TEX) | +340 | 22.73% |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +360 | 21.74% |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +360 | 21.74% |
| Jake Burger (TEX) | +360 | 21.74% |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | +375 | 21.05% |
2025 Home Run Leaders
| Player | Home Runs |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 5 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 5 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (BYY) | 4 |
| Tommy Edman (LAD) | 4 |
| Wilmer Flores (SF) | 4 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 4 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 4 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 4 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 4 |
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