- Get expert betting picks and home run predictions for today's top MLB games.
- Aaron Judge is +333 to hit a home run against the Guardians.
Here are the best MLB home run player props based on MLB odds for today’s schedule:
MLB Home Run Props Today: Monday, Oct. 14
Aaron Judge: +333 to Hit a Home Run
» Bet Aaron Judge to hit a home run today
Guardians vs. Yankees – 7:38 p.m. ET
Will Aaron Judge hit a home run today?
It’s worth reminding readers that MLB postseason odds will be more efficient than the regular-season lines, and that is certainly the case when assessing the home run market.
But there might finally be value on the league’s home run king.
After leading the league with 58 home runs in the regular season, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has yet to club one over the fence this postseason.
He went 2-for-13 with two runs in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals.
As a result, Judge’s home run odds have dipped ahead of Game 1 of the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians. That’s why he appears in this column for the first time all year.
Ballpark Pal’s model makes the Judge the most likely player to hit a home run on Monday, listing a fair price of +269 to go deep. I will bet on his home run odds at +330 or better.
This is the game where Judge gets things going in the postseason.
2024 MLB Home Run Bet Tracker
For transparency, I have compiled a running list of all home run predictions in this daily column since the start of the 2024 MLB season. Multiple third-party apps have tracked all such predictions.
For simplicity, each home run prop has been tracked as one unit.
- Home Run Prop, Year-to-date (YTD) units: +48.85
| DATE | WAGER | ODDS | STAKE | WIN/LOSS | RESULT | YTD |
| 3/28 | Oneil Cruz HR vs. MIA | 850 | 1.00 | WIN | 8.50 | 47.85 |
| 3.28 | Mookie Betts HR vs. STL | 435 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.35 | |
| 3/29 | Yordan Alvarez vs. NYY | 375 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/1 | Bobby Witt Jr. vs. BAL | 800 | 1.00 | WIN | 8.00 | |
| 4/2 | Corbin Carroll vs. NYY | 950 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 4/3 | Jose Altuve vs. TOR | 600 | 1.00 | WIN | 6.00 | |
| 4/4 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. STL | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/5 | Francisco Alvarez vs. CIN | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/11 | Rafael Devers vs. BAL | 550 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 4/17 | Will Smith vs. WAS | 650 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/19 | Shohei Ohtani vs. NYM | 375 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/22 | Ronald Acuna Jr. vs. MIA | 430 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/23 | Jose Ramirez vs. BOS | 675 | 1.00 | WIN | 6.75 | |
| 4/24 | Pete Alonso vs. SF | 675 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 4/26 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs. LAD | 575 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/3 | Pete Alonso vs. TBR | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/7 | Will Smith vs. MIA | 630 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/10 | Marcus Semien vs. COL | 550 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/10 | Salvador Perez vs. LAA | 430 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/13 | Daulton Varsho vs. BAL | 900 | 1.00 | WIN | 9.00 | |
| 5/14 | Anthony Santander vs. TOR | 550 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 5/17 | Spencer Steer vs. LAD | 560 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/20 | Mookie Betts vs. ARI | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/21 | Mike Tauchman vs. ATL | 700 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/24 | Bobby Witt Jr. vs. TBR | 425 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.25 | |
| 5/28 | Gunnar Henderson vs. BOS | 425 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/29 | Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. MIA | 475 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 5/31 | Mookie Betts vs. COL | 550 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/4 | Jose Ramirez vs. KC | 550 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/5 | Jose Ramirez vs. KC | 480 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 6/6 | Royce Lewis vs. NYY | 425 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 6/7 | Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. ARI | 450 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.50 | |
| 6/10 | Willy Adames vs. TOR | 525 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.25 | |
| 6/11 | Pete Alonso vs. MIA | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/12 | Royce Lewis vs. COL | 450 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.50 | |
| 6/14 | Bobby Witt Jr. vs. LAD | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/18 | Michael Busch vs. SF | 650 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/20 | Ezequiel Tovar vs. LAD | 625 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 6/21 | Alec Bohm vs. ARI | 600 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/25 | Adolis Garcia vs. MIL | 350 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/26 | Willy Adames vs. TEX | 525 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 6/28 | Juan Soto vs. TOR | 525 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.25 | |
| 7/2 | Yordan Alvarez vs. TOR | 425 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.25 | |
| 7/3 | Alex Bregman vs. TOR | 600 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/4 | Ryan McMahon vs. MIL | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/8 | Ryan McMahon vs. CIN | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/9 | Cody Bellinger vs. BAL | 525 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/10 | Gunnar Henderson vs. CHC | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/12 | Marcus Semien vs. HOU | 700 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/19 | Heliot Ramos vs. COL | 490 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/22 | Shohei Ohtani vs. SF | 440 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/24 | Jose Ramirez vs. DET | 625 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/26 | Taylor Ward vs. OAK | 575 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.75 | |
| 7/29 | Elly De La Cruz vs. CHC | 480 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 7/30 | Royce Lewis vs. NYM | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 7/31 | Austin Riley vs. MIL | 425 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/2 | Marco Luciano vs. CIN | 475 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/5 | Jose Ramirez vs. ARI | 575 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/6 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. LAA | 500 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 8/7 | J.D. Martinez vs. COL | 450 | 1.00 | VOID | 0.00 | |
| 8/8 | Colton Cowton vs. TOR | 550 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.50 | |
| 8/9 | Elly De La Cruz vs. MIL | 560 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/21 | Bobby Witt Jr. vs. LAA | 425 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/23 | Will Smith vs. TBR | 475 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/26 | Matt Olson vs. MIN | 400 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.00 | |
| 8/27 | Josh Naylor vs. KCR | 425 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/28 | Teoscar Hernandez vs. BAL | 550 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.50 | |
| 8/29 | Salvador Perez vs. HOU | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 8/30 | Oneil Cruz HR vs. CLE | 340 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/3 | Lawrence Butler vs. SEA | 525 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.25 | |
| 9/4 | Taylor Ward vs. LAD | 500 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.00 | |
| 9/5 | Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. DET | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/6 | Anthony Santander vs. TBR | 475 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/9 | Mookie Betts vs. CHC | 475 | 1.00 | WIN | 4.75 | |
| 9/10 | MJ Melendez vs. NYY | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/11 | Bobby Wtt Jr. vs. NYY | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/12 | Wyatt Langford vs. SEA | 550 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/13 | Austin Wells vs. BOS | 550 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/16 | Jose Ramirez vs. MIN | 650 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/17 | Taylor Ward vs. CHW | 475 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/18 | Julio Rodriguez vs. NYY | 525 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/20 | Joc Pederson vs. MIL | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/24 | Manny Machado vs. LAD | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/25 | Anthony Santander vs. NYY | 405 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/26 | Juan Soto vs. BAL | 450 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 9/27 | William Contreras vs. NYM | 550 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 10/1 | Michael Massey vs. BAL | 875 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 10/2 | Jurickson Profar vs. ATL | 800 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 10/5 | Kyle Higashioka vs. LAD | 900 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 10/8 | Teoscar Hernandez vs. SD | 550 | 1.00 | WIN | 5.50 | |
| 10/9 | Bobby Witt Jr. vs. NYY | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 10/11 | Mookie Betts vs. SD | 500 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 | |
| 10/14 | Aaron Judge vs. CLE | 333 | 1.00 | LOSS | -1.00 |
2024 MLB Home Run Leaders
| Player | Home Runs | ABs/HR |
| Aaron Judge | 57 | 9.68 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 53 | 11.64 |
| Anthony Santander | 44 | 13.25 |
| Juan Soto | 41 | 13.80 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 39 | 15.08 |
| José Ramírez# | 38 | 16.16 |
| Brent Rooker | 38 | 13.97 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 38 | 14.82 |
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