- The Marlins are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MAS2 | BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on Monday, April 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 13-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 9-20 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 1-2, 4.61 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 0-3, 4.05 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 8 +100 | +115 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+32.50 Units / 650% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+12.75 Units / 85% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+10.35 Units / 173% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+13.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.30 Units / 283% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.20 Units / 74% ROI)
- Nick Fortes has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 17-10 against the Run Line (+5.48 Units / 15.41% ROI).
- 13-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 22.77% ROI
- 11-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -18.42% ROI
- 15-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.83 Units / 9.49% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 9-20 against the Run Line (-15.71 Units / -41.6% ROI).
- 6-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -18 Units / -55.9% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.78% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -6.93% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nick Gordon (MIA) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Senzel (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tim Anderson (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Gordon (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 1 of 53 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (276/1,234) against Jake Irvin since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (122/591) against Jake Irvin since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strikeout rate of just 11% (5 SO in 45 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .564 (22 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — fourth Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of just .100 (2 Total Bases / 20 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .353 — 95th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (134/444) this season — 2nd highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .360 (89 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 12th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 22-40 (.355) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 70-44 (.614) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Nationals are just 42-68 (.382) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 108-29 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are 36-15 (.706) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Marlins are just 37-33 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Marlins are 14-164 (.079) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Nationals are batting just .091 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .160.
Nationals hitters have 626 extra-base hits out of 2,021 total hits (just 31%) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .324 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (3,152 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .254 (400 PA’s) versus relief pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have 128 extra-base hits out of 444 total hits (just 29%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .356 (3,083 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (118.7 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 114.6).
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .365 (1,668 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 123 of 1,158 batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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