- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Padres vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-130) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (+110) on Thursday, May 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Padres are 27-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 30-18 ATS.
Padres vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 2-1, 2.33 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Bowden Francis 2-6, 5.76 ERA
Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -130 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -160 | U 9 +100 | +110 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+14.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Elias Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.40 Units / 207% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+22.50 Units / 225% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.65 Units / 60% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 68% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 101% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+3.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.86 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.64 Units / 24% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-21 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 2.81% ROI).
- 27-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.74% ROI
- 20-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -15.96% ROI
- 26-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 6.34% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 30-18 against the Run Line (+10.2 Units / 15.16% ROI).
- 24-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.56 Units / -1% ROI
- 23-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -5.82% ROI
- 24-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -2.35% ROI
Blue Jays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -285 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Myles Straw (TOR) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Blue Jays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Addison Barger (TOR) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowden Francis (TOR) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Stephen Kolek (SD) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .326 (47-for-144) against Stephen Kolek since last season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .303 (59-for-195) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .327 (36-for-110) against Stephen Kolek in the 2024 season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .233 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .287 (76-for-265) against Stephen Kolek since last season — 4th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .231 — fourth Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 47 of Bowden Francis’ 300 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 16%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 83 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Bowden Francis has allowed a slugging percentage of .681 (32 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .312 — 0 Percentile.
Bowden Francis has allowed a slugging percentage of .739 (51 Total Bases / 69 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .368 — 0 Percentile.
Bowden Francis has allowed an OPS of 1.149 (78 PA’s) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .641 — 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Padres are 83-9 (.902) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .808.
The Padres are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Padres are 120-89 (.574) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres were 48-33 (.593) on the road in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Blue Jays are just 15-4 (.789) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Blue Jays are just 19-3 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .957.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays were just 4-74 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Padres are batting .271 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .246 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters had 107 extra-base hits out of 340 total hits (just 32%) against LHP in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .480 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Blue Jays have won just just 0% of the time this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
More MLB Reading:
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