- The Cubs are -155 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Cubs Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-155) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Padres are 19-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 23-13 ATS.
Padres vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 0-1, 5.87 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 5-0, 0.78 ERA
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +130 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -155 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+26.50 Units / 189% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+13.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 28 games (+10.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+9.60 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+19.95 Units / 249% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+12.25 Units / 66% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+10.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 35 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 128 games (+9.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 19-19 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 4.46% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -4.77% ROI
- 21-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 8.94% ROI
- 16-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -17.06% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 23-13 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 14.65% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 16.53% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.05 Units / -15.24% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 6.19% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga has walked 4 of 132 batters (3%) this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OPS of just .431 (132 PA’s) this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OBP of just .197 (132 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OBP of just .197 (132 PA’s) this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .300 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 5-16 (.238) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .426.
The Padres are just 1-84 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are just 7-135 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Padres are just 17-31 (.354) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 37-39 (.487) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 9-14 (.391) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,104 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Padres hitters have just 216 strikeouts in 1,104 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have 39 extra-base hits out of 72 total hits (54%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Padres are batting .289 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .825 (256 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Cubs are batting .270 against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,973 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Cubs hitters are slugging .457 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.2 MPH since last season (4,811 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (4,944 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.00 (153.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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