- The Diamondbacks are -125 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (+105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) on Saturday, May 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 17-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 15-18 ATS.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 2-3, 5.00 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 1-1, 4.63 ERA
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games (+25.40 Units / 127% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+12.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 112% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kevin Newman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+17.50 Units / 292% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.95 Units / 81% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+12.05 Units / 83% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 130 games (+11.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 17-18 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 2.57% ROI).
- 17-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 1.84% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -4 Units / -10.26% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 15-18 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -12.78% ROI).
- 14-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -18.68% ROI
- 13-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -21.89% ROI
- 19-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.85 Units / 13.43% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has walked 21 of 162 batters (13%) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Michael King has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.706 (29 Total Bases / 17 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .412 — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 58% of Michael King’s pitches in the zone (651/1,122) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Michael King has walked 13 of 79 left-handed batters (17%) this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — ninth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 77% (111/145) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 77% (111/145) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 31% (16/51) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 31% (16/51) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 4-144 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Padres are just 7-134 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 128-23 (.848) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Diamondbacks are 22-138 (.138) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Diamondbacks are 79-20 (.798) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Diamondbacks are 13-76 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .183 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .779 (2,003 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .860 (429 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 71 strikeouts in 429 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .486 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Alek Thomas (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Jose Castillo (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
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