The San Diego Padres (-120) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (+100) on Monday, March 11, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Peoria, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 6-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 5-4 ATS.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Padres | -120 |
| Mariners | +100 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brett Sullivan has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 155 games (+17.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 77 away games (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Padres are 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -11.29% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.44 Units / -2.72% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -39.27% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.63 Units / 31.24% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mariners are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.86 Units / 7.11% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.66 Units / -48.96% ROI
- 8-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.82 Units / 68% ROI
- 1-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -79.32% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish threw his slider 49% of the time (227/464) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has an average spin rate of 2764.4 RPM on sliders since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted .455 (30-for-66) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .350 — third Percentile.
Yu Darvish threw breaking pitches 54% of the time (252/464) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert walked 36 of 770 batters (5%) in the 2023 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.
Logan Gilbert allowed an OBP of just .270 (767 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 95th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert threw his slider 44% of the time (229/525) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .272 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 12th-best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 90th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 0 Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres were just 1-65 (.015) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Padres are 48-7 (.873) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners were 13-8 (.619) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Mariners are 44-6 (.880) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners were 64-13 (.831) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Mariners were 76-2 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres were just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres were just 2-13 (-73.5% ROI) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres hitters had a swing rate of just 44% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters had an OBP of .343 (1,699 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .125 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters struck out 1,603 times in 6,201 PA’s (26%) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,898 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 37% against the Padres pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mariners pitchers had a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers had an ERA of 3.42 (744.0 IP) at home in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Manny Machado (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, Out
- Gary Sanchez (San Diego Padres): Hand, Out
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