Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (46-40) are -125 favorites vs the Cardinals (46-42)
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (5-6), 3.15 ERA
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas (5-7), 2.71 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSMW

The Philadelphia Phillies (-125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+105) on Monday, July 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Phillies vs Cardinals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 46-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 46-42 ATS.

Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +135O 7.5 -105-125
Cardinals +1.5 -160U 7.5 -115+105

Phillies vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s matchup with 64.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.60 Units / 62% ROI)

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.75 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Juan Yepez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Lars Nootbaar 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Cardinals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Corey Dickerson 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Dylan Carlson 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Juan Yepez 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Lars Nootbaar 0.5 -110 0.5 -125

Cardinals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Knizner 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Corey Dickerson 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Dylan Carlson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Juan Yepez 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Lars Nootbaar 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Cardinals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Miles Mikolas 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
Aaron Nola 5.5 -135 5.5 -105
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+11.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+11.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+5.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+4.05 Units / 13% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 45-41 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 3.55% ROI).

  • 46-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.59% ROI
  • 45-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 2.43% ROI
  • 39-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -11.03% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 46-42 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.13% ROI).

  • 46-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -2.37% ROI
  • 40-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -9.16% ROI
  • 44-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.15% ROI

Aaron Nola has walked 15 of 431 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 5 of 224 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .114 (5-for-44) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 27% (16 SO in 59 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 96th Percentile.

Miles Mikolas: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Miles Mikolas has walked 9 of 213 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.

Miles Mikolas has a strikeout rate of just 36% (83 SO in 228 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (8/57) against Miles Mikolas with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (57/333) against Miles Mikolas this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Phillies are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cardinals are 18-5 (.783) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are just 1-37 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Cardinals are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Phillies hitters have 2 strikeouts in 4 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are batting .350 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Phillies hitters are slugging .501 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Cardinals hitters have 192 extra-base hits out of 445 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 219 extra-base hits out of 517 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .457 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Cardinals are batting .262 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,211 times since the start of last season — 4th fewest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 78 of 780 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 206 of 2,199 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cardinals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.