- The Phillies are -180 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-180) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+150) on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 43-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-33 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 6-2, 4.26 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill 3-7, 5.59 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -105 | -180 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -115 | +150 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 62.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+16.90 Units / 169% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+14.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Fortes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+12.00 Units / 300% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+9.40 Units / 78% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+14.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.58 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 away games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 46 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 51 games (+3.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 35-36 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -3.82% ROI).
- 43-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 3.66% ROI
- 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -13.5% ROI
- 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 5.12% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 37-33 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -1.5% ROI).
- 28-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -8.87% ROI
- 36-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -2.94% ROI
- 34-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -6.99% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Max Kepler (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill (MIA) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
34% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (15-for-33) against Jesus Luzardo’s low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .304 (72-for-237) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .277 (86-for-310) against Jesus Luzardo this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .383 (49-for-128) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has allowed an OBP of .323 (693 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batting at the bottom of the order are hitting .420 (29-for-69) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (40/113) against Cal Quantrill this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 8-18 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Phillies are 196-49 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 58-17 (.773) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Marlins are just 63-14 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Marlins were just 45-10 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .413 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .770 (2,771 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Phillies hitters are slugging .441 against LHP since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .238 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.52 (300.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
More MLB Reading:
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