- The Phillies are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-250) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+200) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 28-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 11-30 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 4-3, 1.63 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -145 | O 7 -105 | -250 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +120 | U 7 -115 | +200 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 77.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Johan Rojas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+17.00 Units / 425% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 31 games (+12.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+9.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+9.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 26 games (+15.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+14.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+12.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+2.99 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 22-18 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 10.78% ROI).
- 28-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.25 Units / 17.15% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -4.33% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -4.76% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 11-30 against the Run Line (-25.51 Units / -48.35% ROI).
- 10-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -48.21% ROI
- 24-17 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.65 Units / 12.57% ROI
- 17-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -20.33% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -155 |
| Braxton Garrett (MIA) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .052 (6-for-115) against Zack Wheeler with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has a strikeout rate of 36% (26 SO in 72 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .129 (12-for-93) against Zack Wheeler this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,821/4,271) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (355/737) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (226/480) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 5 of 244 batters (2%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Braxton Garrett breaking pitch was September 7th, 2023. Hitters are 0 for their last 22 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Clay Holmes has the longest active streak at 40.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 14-9 (.609) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Phillies are 23-21 (.523) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Phillies are 35-66 (.347) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Phillies are 171-52 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 110-29 (.791) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Marlins are 15-170 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 25-61 (.291) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Marlins are just 30-58 (.341) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .123 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Phillies have won 60% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Phillies have won 58% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.47 (114.0 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.35 (362.0 IP) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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