Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 19, NLCS

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San Diego Padres' Manny Machado celebrates after hitting a home run during the eighth inning of a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals, Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, in San Diego.
(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 19, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Padres
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 0.00 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell, 3.11 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in San Diego for this postseason game.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Phillies are 93-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 78-92 ATS.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Phillies-1.5 +165O 7 -120-105
Padres +1.5 -200U 7 +100-115

Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Phillies and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 51 away games (+21.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 51 away games (+15.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+13.35 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 40 of his last 80 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+12.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 46 games at home (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)

Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +1050 0.5
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Josh Bell 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Juan Soto 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -160 0.5 +110
Josh Bell 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Juan Soto 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Josh Bell 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Juan Soto 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 5.5 +105 5.5 -145
Blake Snell 6.5 +105 6.5 -150
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 57 away games (+24.28 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 119 games (+15.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 118 games (+10.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 away games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.73 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 83 games at home (+6.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.30 Units / 19% ROI)

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 88-81 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 1.38% ROI).

  • 93-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.13% ROI
  • 85-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.37% ROI
  • 78-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.25 Units / -7.7% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-92 against the Run Line (-20.45 Units / -9.61% ROI).

  • 94-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -3.95% ROI
  • 80-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -6.91% ROI
  • 85-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -1.57% ROI

Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (2 games) — tied for most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (1,132/1,605) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has pitched 21.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 22.1.

Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Blake Snell has walked 10 of 60 batters (17%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 107 of 880 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 9 of 51 right-handed batters (18%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 7 of 41 batters (17%) this month (2 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

The Phillies are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Padres are batting just .230 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Padres hitters have put 38% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH this season (3,972 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.