- The Phillies are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola, 0.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell, 3.11 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Philadelphia Phillies (-105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Wednesday, October 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:35pm EDT in San Diego for this postseason game.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Phillies vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Phillies are 93-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 78-92 ATS.
Phillies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | O 7 -120 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | U 7 +100 | -115 |
Phillies vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Phillies and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 51 away games (+21.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 51 away games (+15.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+13.35 Units / 78% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 40 of his last 80 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+12.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 46 games at home (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -145 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 57 away games (+24.28 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 119 games (+15.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 118 games (+10.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 away games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.73 Units / 90% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 83 games at home (+6.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.30 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 88-81 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 93-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 1.13% ROI
- 85-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 78-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.25 Units / -7.7% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-92 against the Run Line (-20.45 Units / -9.61% ROI).
- 94-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -3.95% ROI
- 80-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.9 Units / -6.91% ROI
- 85-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.95 Units / -1.57% ROI
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (582/836) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has 5 three-pitch strikeouts this month (2 games) — tied for most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 70% (1,132/1,605) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has pitched 21.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 22.1.
Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 10 of 60 batters (17%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 107 of 880 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 9 of 51 right-handed batters (18%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 7 of 41 batters (17%) this month (2 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 31 total hits (61%) against RHP this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Phillies are batting .176 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres are batting just .230 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 38% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH this season (3,972 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 53 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
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