- The Rays are -105 favorites vs the Marlins
- Rays vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rays / Marlins TV Channel: FDFL | FSUN | WBFS | WTOG
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-105) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Rays are 20-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 21-21 ATS.
Rays vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 3-2, 4.25 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 0-1, 5.53 ERA
Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -115 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -115 | -105 |
Rays vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+7.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+18.60 Units / 372% ROI)
- Max Meyer has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 58% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games at home (+10.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 36% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+9.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+6.35 Units / 68% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 19-24 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -13.06% ROI).
- 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.87 Units / -9.13% ROI
- 17-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -19.73% ROI
- 24-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.65 Units / 12.02% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 21-21 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -2.07% ROI).
- 16-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -8.14% ROI
- 26-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.05 Units / 17.26% ROI
- 16-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.5 Units / -27.32% ROI
Marlins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Matt Mervis (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
Marlins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of just 12% (9 SO in 72 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — ninth Percentile.
Taj Bradley has walked 10% of right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed a slugging percentage of just .179 (5 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — 88th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .071 (2-for-28) against Taj Bradley’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 13% of batters since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 61% (617/1,003) when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 69% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (106/151) against Edward Cabrera on non-fastballs in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera walked 29 of 166 batters (17%) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are 3-19 (.136) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Rays are 9-6 (.600) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Rays are 148-9 (.937) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Rays are 15-146 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are just 9-3 (.750) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 20-41 (.328) after a win in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting just .199 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .283 in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .293 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Marlins are just 22-55 (.286) against the run line (-43.0% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.
Marlins hitters averaged just 3.72 pitches per plate appearance against LHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Rays pitchers have struck out in the zone 65% of the time over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%. over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Batters facing the Rays pitchers have struck out in the zone 64% of the time this month (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%. this month (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Rays pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays pitchers walked 445 of 6,022 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.30 (168.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
More MLB Reading:
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