- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Blue Jays TV Channel: NESN | RSN1
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-105) on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Red Sox are 38-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 32-40 ATS.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 7-5, 2.07 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Chris Bassitt 6-6, 3.55 ERA
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -110 | -115 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -110 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+15.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 away games (+13.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+12.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- Connor Wong has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+11.20 Units / 107% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.55 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+13.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+10.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+7.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 32 away games (+6.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 away games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games (+10.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 67 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 58 games (+4.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 35-38 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -9.26% ROI).
- 38-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 33-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -7.42% ROI
- 36-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.06% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 32-40 against the Run Line (-13.45 Units / -14.36% ROI).
- 35-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -9.46% ROI
- 31-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -15.21% ROI
- 39-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 5.66% ROI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Tanner Houck’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .486 (202 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .689 — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has a strike rate of 73% (274/377) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .299 (191 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .480 — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 11% (10/94) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (139 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 80.8
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of .393 (163 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (19/134) against Chris Bassitt with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 1-30 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .108.
The Red Sox are just 7-31 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Red Sox are 31-4 (.886) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Red Sox are just 2-104 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 26-18 (.591) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Blue Jays are 78-31 (.716) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Blue Jays are 20-12 (.625) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Blue Jays are just 13-79 (.141) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have a groundball batting average of just .204 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Blue Jays hitters have a groundball batting average of just .175 against the shift this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,262 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of just .637 (618 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 193 of 2,713 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (1,805 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 43 of 654 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Blue Jays have won just just 4% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 241 of 3,538 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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