- The Blue Jays are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Blue Jays TV Channel: NESN | RSN1 | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-130) on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Red Sox are 39-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 33-40 ATS.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 6-4, 5.03 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 5-5, 4.10 ERA
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -115 | +110 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -105 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+16.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.60 Units / 194% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 games at home (+14.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 away games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 74 games (+6.20 Units / 7% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+11.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 59 games (+5.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 35-39 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -10.16% ROI).
- 39-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.95% ROI
- 33-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -8.68% ROI
- 37-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 1.29% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 33-40 against the Run Line (-12.45 Units / -13.08% ROI).
- 35-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -10.39% ROI
- 31-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.1 Units / -16.38% ROI
- 40-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.5 Units / 6.82% ROI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (71/430) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of .771 (27 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .363 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (128/674) against Brayan Bello on pitches in the strike zone since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (152/249) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of .769 (30 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .344 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .350 (14-for-40) against Kevin Gausman’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — first Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 76% (872/1,145) of the time since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of .650 (26 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .349 — third Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 2-104 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Red Sox are 12-8 (.600) after a road win this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Red Sox are 163-12 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Red Sox are just 2-13 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 26-19 (.578) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Blue Jays are 20-13 (.606) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Blue Jays are 78-31 (.716) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Blue Jays are just 5-12 (.294) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 224 strikeouts in 791 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 592 strikeouts in 2,369 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,369 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 379 strikeouts in 2,026 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have a groundball batting average of just .206 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Blue Jays hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,265 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of just .637 (621 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 43 of 663 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 195 of 2,750 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH this season (1,833 balls in play) — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The average home run distance against the Blue Jays pitchers since last season is 393.7 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 398.5
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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