The Boston Red Sox (+140) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-165) on Friday, March 22, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Dunedin, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 10-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 8-9 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +140 |
| Blue Jays | -165 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s matchup with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 away games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- George Springer has hit the Hits Under in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 13-8 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 21.43% ROI).
- 10-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -2.92% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / -40.91% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 31.84% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 8-9 against the Run Line (+0 Units / -5.42% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / -3.78% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 13.05% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / -20.23% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Hagenman is making his MLB debut today.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch White has limited playing time.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were just 35-47 (.427) after a loss in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
10% of Red Sox’s hitters plate appearances lasted only one pitch (601/6,174 PA’s) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 645 times in 3,295 PA’s (20%) in righty-righty matchups in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
27% of Blue Jays hitters strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters had an OPS of .765 (3,202 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers threw over to first base 120 times in the 2023 season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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