- The Red Sox are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
- Red Sox vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Marlins TV Channel: NESN | BSFL
The Boston Red Sox (-155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+130) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 46-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 37-49 ATS.
Red Sox vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 4-5, 4.53 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Kyle Tyler 0-1, 3.38 ERA
Red Sox vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +105 | O 8 -110 | -155 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | U 8 -110 | +130 |
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 away games (+11.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 away games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 85 games (+5.35 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+4.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 45 games at home (+16.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games (+15.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+13.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.20 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 40-45 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -9.06% ROI).
- 46-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 2.89% ROI
- 41-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -2.52% ROI
- 40-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -5.27% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 37-49 against the Run Line (-27.06 Units / -23.43% ROI).
- 30-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -20.7% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 1.74% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -9.31% ROI
Marlins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jazz Chisholm (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Kyle Tyler (MIA) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .776 (225 Total Bases / 290 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .573 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (416 Total Bases / 591 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: .561 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (15-for-116) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (28/95) against Nick Pivetta this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Kyle Tyler fastball was June 14th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his fastball. — Raisel Iglesias has the longest active streak at 23.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Red Sox are just 2-107 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are 34-31 (.523) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Red Sox are 36-4 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Red Sox are 37-29 (.561) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Marlins are just 9-20 (.310) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 9-9 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .756.
The Marlins are just 2-13 (.133) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 259 strikeouts in 915 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 627 strikeouts in 2,493 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .196 (1,585 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have drawn 115 walks in 2,096 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .270 (1,032 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .594 (1,032 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 18 of 385 batters (5%) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 215 of 3,175 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (366.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 5.84 runs per game (263/45) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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