- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Rays
- Red Sox vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Rays TV Channel: NESN | BSUN
The Boston Red Sox (-130) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+110) on Tuesday, September 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 75-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 77-73 ATS.
Red Sox vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 5-10, 4.24 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 2-3, 3.28 ERA
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -110 | -130 |
| Rays | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -110 | +110 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+16.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+9.60 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.45 Units / 286% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 away games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 72 away games (+10.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 72 away games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 147 games (+24.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+15.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 9 games (+13.95 Units / 155% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 141 games (+13.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 79 games (+10.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 70-80 against the Run Line (-19.15 Units / -9.69% ROI).
- 75-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -4.59% ROI
- 74-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 68-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -7.79% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 77-73 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -2.5% ROI).
- 73-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.16 Units / -6.23% ROI
- 66-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.9 Units / -12.11% ROI
- 79-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 4.04% ROI
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .783 (303 Total Bases / 387 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .572 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .814 (158 Total Bases / 194 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: .561 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .176 (675 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has struck out 31% (81/258) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Shane Baz when going through the lineup the second time in a game in his last two starts — tied for 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .226 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% (34/173) against Shane Baz this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .080 (2-for-25) against Shane Baz in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed an OPS of just .372 (29 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in his last two starts — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .692 — 91st Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 4-53 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 19-187 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Red Sox are 23-18 (.561) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Red Sox are just 14-20 (.412) after a home win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 35-63 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Rays are 128-5 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Rays are 60-4 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 19-116 (.141) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 490 strikeouts in 1,744 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 1,228 strikeouts in 4,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .390 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging just .357 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .657 (4,292 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 427 of 5,701 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,247 of 17,534 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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