- The Royals are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Royals TV Channel: NESN | BSKC
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-130) on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 60-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-50 ATS.
Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 10-5, 5.17 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 13-5, 2.57 ERA
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -110 | +110 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -110 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 away games (+27.30 Units / 137% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+16.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+15.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+18.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+17.80 Units / 297% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 54% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 68 games (+18.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 away games (+13.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 away games (+11.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 111 games (+6.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+11.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+10.29 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 games at home (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 53-58 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -8.09% ROI).
- 60-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 2.12% ROI
- 57-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 2.91% ROI
- 49-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -10.92% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 64-50 against the Run Line (+5.64 Units / 3.67% ROI).
- 63-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.1 Units / 6.3% ROI
- 49-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.75 Units / -14.35% ROI
- 61-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.7 Units / 5.36% ROI
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 +145 | 5.5 -190 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (170/285) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (27/74) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (27/74) against Brayan Bello on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .436 (98-for-225) against Brayan Bello when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: .339 — second Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (31/177) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .252 (69-for-274) against Seth Lugo in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .321 — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OPS of just .514 (111 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .705 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of just .239 (285 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 91st Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are just 19-25 (.432) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Red Sox are 111-8 (.933) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are just 53-173 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Red Sox are 47-51 (.480) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are 24-35 (.407) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Royals are just 40-56 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Royals are just 23-99 (.189) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 18-33 (.353) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 366 strikeouts in 1,303 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .963 (503 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Red Sox are batting .264 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .455 with bases empty this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 171 strikeouts in 966 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn 60 walks in 966 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals won only 35% of games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 300 of 4,220 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 58 of 1,001 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Red Sox have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 163 of 2,436 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers this season is 406.2 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 397.4
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
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