- The Royals are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Royals TV Channel: NESN | FDKC
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-130) on Sunday, May 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Red Sox are 21-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 20-21 ATS.
Red Sox vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 0-1, 8.69 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 3-3, 2.86 ERA
Red Sox vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -105 | +110 |
| Royals | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -115 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+7.70 Units / 96% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.85 Units / 70% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+11.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 41 games (+18.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+15.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-21 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 1.6% ROI).
- 21-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -10.84% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -8.61% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 1.11% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 20-21 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -13.89% ROI).
- 24-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 14.54% ROI
- 14-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.2 Units / -31.73% ROI
- 26-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.65 Units / 23.43% ROI
Royals vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Royals vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (23/141) against Lucas Giolito when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .556 (10-for-18) against Lucas Giolito this month (1 game{NumGameSuffix}) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed a slugging percentage of .603 (335 Total Bases / 556 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: .483 — first Percentile.
65 of Lucas Giolito’s 204 strikeouts (32%) came on changeups in 2023 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (148/203) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .133 (4-for-30) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (148/203) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (168/546) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are just 40-156 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Red Sox are just 5-71 (.066) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Red Sox were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2024 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Red Sox are just 4-158 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 5-60 (.077) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .191.
The Royals are 17-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Royals are just 18-35 (.340) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 28% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .302 (3,319 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are batting .175 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of its PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have walked 5% of batters over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.31 (163.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
More MLB Reading:
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