The Boston Red Sox (+165) visit Hammond Stadium to take on the Minnesota Twins (-200) on Friday, March 1, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 2-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 1-3 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +165 |
| Twins | -200 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 4-1 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 48.23% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Twins are 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -54.64% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -21.36% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -6.38% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito induced opposing hitters to ground into just 7 double plays in 129 opportunities (5%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — eighth Percentile.
Lucas Giolito had an ERA of 4.88 (184.1 IP)in the 2023 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.84 — eighth Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed a slugging percentage of .482 (340 Total Bases / 705 ABs) in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — sixth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 18% (36/197) against Lucas Giolito in the 2023 season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (144/435) against Joe Ryan in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strikeout rate of 29% (197/672) in the 2023 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 71% (884/1,249) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan elevated 46% of his pitches (661/1,434) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are just 29-44 (.397) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins were 31-10 (.756) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Twins hitters struck out 1,654 times in 6,219 PA’s (27%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers walked 99 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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